The trade deadline is here, so keep an eye on your MLB player props for today and pour one out for anyone who had Justin Turner total bases or hits yesterday as the veteran hitter was pulled midgame with one hit when the Blue Jays traded him to the Mariners.
MLB props for July 30
- Lowe 2+ total bases (+160 at bet365)
- Stephenson o0.5 RBI (+170 at bet365)
- Corbin u17.5 outs recorded (+108 at FanDuel)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Brandon Lowe 2+ total bases
The Tampa Bay Rays are in full sell mode ahead of today’s trade deadline. The likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Amed Rosario, Jason Adam and Zach Eflin are already out the door and the Rays may not be done yet as Yandy Diaz is being linked to several teams, including the New York Yankees.
That kind of makes Brandon Lowe the last-man standing for a Rays lineup that has made the postseason in five consecutive seasons. But the second baseman/outfielder is doing his best to shoulder the load for his team.
Lowe is having a solid July at the dish, hitting .333 with a 1.081 OPS, six home runs, and 11 runs batted in. The lefty slugger has multi-hit games in each of his last three starts, going a ridiculous 8-for-11 (.667) with a 1.983 OPS, four doubles, and a dinger. I like him to stay hot in tonight’s matchup against the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins hand the ball to Edward Cabrera. The 26-year-old right-hander is making his 10th start of the season, and the first nine have not gone well. Cabrera is pitching to a 5.24 expected ERA, which lands him in the eighth percentile, and ranks in the Bottom 3% in both barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. Not surprisingly, left-handed batters have done a good chunk of the damage, getting to Cabrera for a .928 OPS.
Lowe has notched two or more total bases in three straight games and eight times in his last 13 overall. The +160 price on him to do so once again makes this bet a great value.
Prop bet #2: Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 RBI
It’s the Tyler Stephenson revenge game as the Cincinnati Reds continue their series with the rival Chicago Cubs.
Stephenson was hit in the helmet with a Nate Pearson fastball during last night’s 7-1 Cincy victory. But Stephenson stayed in the game and said he was fine afterward. Now, I like him to exact his revenge on the scoreboard.
The Reds’ catcher is having a productive season with a .735 OPS, 11 home runs, and 35 runs batted in, and I like his odds of having another productive night at the plate. That’s because Stephenson should be looking forward to the matchup with Cubbies starter Justin Steele.
Steele is have a solid season, but the Reds continue to give him problems, maybe no one more so than Stephenson. The Cincy slugger just sees the ball well out of Steele’s hand and is 9 of 16 with two doubles and a dinger in his career vs. him. That’s good for a .413 expected batting average and a .752 expected slugging percentage.
But Stephenson isn’t the only Red with success vs. Steele, with current Cincinnati batters getting to him for a .256 xBA. That should mean Stephenson will get some opportunities to hit with runners on base and at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have a Stephenson RBI as a five-star play.
Prop bet #3: Patrick Corbin Under 17.5 outs recorded
Even after all these years, there is still nothing like a good Patrick Corbin fade, and that’s what I’ll be doing when he takes the ball in tonight’s matchup between the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Corbin’s futility is almost becoming impressive at this point. The 35-year-old left-hander has been arguably baseball’s worst starter for what feels like forever. Realistically, it’s been about four seasons and 2024 hasn’t done anything to change that.
Corbin enters this matchup against the D-backs with a 5.85 expected ERA and a .309 opponent expected batting average. Those numbers rank in the Bottom 2% and 1%, respectively, among MLB pitchers.
Unfortunately for bettors, everyone knows this and it can be hard to extract value in Corbin fades these days. But I have something for you today.
The Nationals are becoming a better baseball team (Corbin notwithstanding) and aren’t just letting Corbin pitch through his problems like they have in the past. He is now averaging 5.6 innings and 90.2 pitches per start. That has me looking at the Under on his outs recorded prop, which for this matchup is set at 17.5.
That’s a number he’s stayed below in five of his last nine starts and in 11 of 21 overall this season. That includes a June 19 meeting against the D-backs in which he lasted five innings on 90 pitches.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ lineup has been most effective against southpaws this season, ranking second in batting average, seventh in OPS, and eighth in wRC+ vs. lefties.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Corbin at 15.3 outs, more than two outs lower than the 17.5 and making this a five-star play in our MLB picks.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
