It’s a jam-packed day of action on the diamond with all 30 teams taking the field. That means the options for MLB player props are limitless and I’m here to bring you my favorites.
I start with a red-hot phenom for the Nationals, looking at Juan Soto in a juicy matchup against the Guardians, and closing with what could be a down night at the dish for Matt Olson.
MLB props for August 21
- Wood Over 0.5 RBI (+190 at bet365)
- Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
- Olson Under 0.5 hits (+160 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: James Wood Over 0.5 RBI
The Washington Nationals are set up well for the future. They're stocked to the brim with impressive young talent on the mound and in the field. And for me, it all starts with James Wood.
The former top prospect has already been showing his bat could be a big problem for opponents in the future. He enters tonight’s matchup with the Colorado Rockies hitting .277 with an .811 OPS, five home runs, and 28 RBI in his first 43 MLB games. The towering outfielder is also having a great month of August, putting up a .328 average with a 1.005 OPS over 17 games and I like that to continue tonight.
Colorado hands the ball to fellow rookie Tanner Gordon. The 26-year-old right-hander is making just his seventh career start and his transition to the Big Leagues has not been smooth. Gordon is pitching to a 5.23 expected ERA while surrendering a .292 expected batting average to opponents. Both would be in the Bottom 10% of the league if he qualified.
That also means the left-handed slugging Wood will have the splits edge in this matchup. Wood’s OPS bumps up to .878 and four of his five home runs have come against right-handed pitching. He's driven in a run in nine of his last 16 games and at this price, with this matchup, I like him to add to that total. Plus, it’s a five-star play according to our Covers Prop Projections.
Prop bet #2: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Last night was a weird one for Juan Soto and the New York Yankees. Soto broke out of his mini-slump by hitting a home run, but that was his only hit in six plate appearances in what turned out to be a 9-5 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. That said, I like him to carry the momentum of that dinger into tonight’s matchup.
He enters this game hitting .299 with a 1.034 OPS with 35 home runs and 88 RBI, and he gets a good matchup against Guardians starter Joey Cantillo.
Cantillo is a 24-year-old rookie left-hander who's making just his fourth career Big League start and the first three have been a little rough. The southpaw is pitching to a 7.24 expected ERA and a .291 opponent expected batting average at this early point in his career.
And while you might think Cantillo at least has the lefty-lefty edge, hold on: the lefty-lefty split is likely just giving us a little extra value. That’s because Soto handles southpaws nearly as well as he does right-handers.
He's hitting .288 with a 1.006 OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season and even with Soto’s tough series against the Tigers where he went hitless in three games, he’s still topped 1.5 total bases four times over his last eight games.
The slump and the split give us more value and our Covers Prop Projections agree, marking the Over 1.5 total bases as a five-star play.
Prop bet #3: Matt Olson Under 0.5 hits
It’s clear the Philadelphia Phillies have surpassed the Atlanta Braves and are the class of the NL East this season. That's in part because this Philly lineup looks much more feared than the Braves do at this point. Injuries have played a part, but several Atlanta players are having down seasons, including first baseman Matt Olson.
The two-time All-Star led the NL in home runs, RBI, and slugging percentage while hitting .283. He enters tonight’s matchup against the Phils with a .228 average, a middling 21 home runs, and 63 RBI. Plus, his OPS of .731 is the lowest of his career.
He’s also in a slump. Olson is just 2-for-his-last-17, good for a .118 batting average. That means he won’t be happy to see Aaron Nola on the bump. These two have had their battles, and while Olson has a few big knocks against Nola, the Philly starter has gotten the better of him in the long run. Olson is 8-30 in his career vs. Nola, that's good for a .189 expected batting average and a .323 expected slugging.
Mix in a stellar Phillies bullpen and I like the MLB odds of Olson putting up a donut at the dish tonight, something he's done in three of his last five games.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
