The Texas Rangers have dealt with dreadful starting pitching over the past couple of games and are traveling to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seatle Mariners tonight.
My Rangers vs. Mariners predictions see Texas getting a better start from top prospect Kumar Rocker in his major league debut.
Let’s take a closer look with my September 12 MLB picks.
Rangers vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 strikeouts (-133 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Texas Rangers right-hander Kumar Rocker has been a strikeout machine since returning to the diamond following Tommy John surgery. Split between Double-A and Triple-A, Rocker has only pitched 36 2/3 innings this season, but he’s still managed to pile up 55 strikeouts while sporting a 44.3 K%. Insane numbers.
Rocker also showed very good command in the minors, issuing only five walks and posting a BB% below 4.0. He consistently hammers the strike zone, often flirts with 100 miles per hour with his four-seam fastball, and has the stuff to blow pitches by opposing batters.
Although the Seattle Mariners have seen some improvement in their plate discipline since the additions of Randy Arozerana and Justin Turner, they are still a prime target for strikeouts.
Only nine teams have posted a higher strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers over the last month. The same can be said if we isolate only September baseball.
Rocker’s not going to sustain a 44.3 K% when making the jump to the big leagues but he doesn’t need to. If we assume he faces exactly 20 batters, he’d only need to sit down 25% of the Mariners he faces to clear this number.
Given the Rangers have gotten next to no length from their starters of late, we should expect Rocker to get some rope in his MLB debut, and his electric arsenal should serve him well against one of baseball's most strikeout-prone teams.
Rangers vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Kumar Rocker Over 4.5 strikeouts
Bryce Miller Under 2.5 earned runs
Mariners alt TT Over 0.5
Rocker isn’t the only starter I want a piece of in this game. I also really like Bryce Miller to put forth a quality showing for the Seattle Mariners.
Miller has conceded two runs or fewer in 19 of 28 starts this season, including 12 of 14 on home soil. Miller allowed four runs to the Boston Red Sox in his home debut and has since gone under in 12 of 13 starts — only failing against a very good Philadelphia Phillies offense.
The Rangers rank 19th in runs per game on the season. Their offense has not been great and they’re without superstar shortstop Corey Seager due to injury, which takes a big bite out of their lineup. Miller should be able to limit the damage against this Rangers team.
Adding the Mariners to score a run juices up the parlay a little bit. Texas does not have a good bullpen, owning a 4.46 bullpen ERA on the season. Even if Rocker can put forth a spotless performance over five or six innings, the Mariners are a good bet to muster up some sort of damage against this vulnerable bullpen.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Mariners odds
Rangers vs Mariners live odds
Rangers vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +135 | Seattle -160
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-165) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Rangers vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners opened as -152 favorites at Pinnacle but there’s been a big adjustment to -136.
- The O/U opened at 7.5 runs with -115 being the price for the Under. Bettors now have to lay -110 to get Under 7.0 runs.
- The Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in nine of their last 11 games at home (+7.05 Units / 53% ROI).
- The Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in seven of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 35% ROI)
Rangers vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have scored at least two runs in 14 straight home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners.
Rangers vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, ROOT Northwest |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Kumar Rocker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryce Miller (11-8, 3.18 ERA) |
Rangers vs Mariners latest injuries
Rangers vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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