Welcome to the latest edition of the MLB Power Rankings. We're getting to the nitty gritty time of the year, where playoff races get tight and divisions are either won or lost. Every game counts the same throughout the season, but they feel different now.
I’ve talked excessively about the Los Angeles Dodgers over the last few weeks, but it feels necessary. They are 8-2 in their last ten games and just took Game 1 of a potential NLCS preview the previous night against the New York Mets. What’s most notable about them for the moment is our Power Rankings rate them as both the best offense and best pitching staff in baseball.
What’s the biggest story in baseball right now? I suppose that depends on who you ask. For me, it’s if the New York Yankees could choke their AL East divisional lead away. I’ve remained steadfast that I’m still pretty high on the Yankees, but the concerns are there.
They were surpassed in our Power Rankings by the Houston Astros this week in a move that feels long overdue. The pitching has regressed to the third best in baseball. With a pretty sizable differential between actual and expected batting average, that regression may not be over.
Let’s get to breaking down this week's Power Rankings. Once again, there wasn’t much movement, but what we saw was substantial.
MLB Power Rankings: Week of August 31
| Rank | Team (Radius) | Last Week's Rank | Record | World Series odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers (.711) | 1 | 90-38 | +350 |
| 2 | Houston Astros (.642) | 3 | 83-47 | +425 |
| 3 | New York Yankees (.633) | 2 | 79-51 | +475 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves (.627) | 4 | 79-51 | +900 |
| 5 | New York Mets (.617) | 5 | 82-48 | +500 |
| 6 | St. Louis Cardinals (..585) | 6 | 75-55 | +2,200 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies (.566) | 7 | 72-58 | +3,000 |
| 8 | Toronto Blue Jays (.555) | 8 | 70-58 | +1,400 |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays (.546) | 9 | 71-57 | +3,500 |
| 10 | San Diego Padres (.541) | 10 | 72-59 | +2,800 |
| 11 | Milwaukee Brewers (.541) | 11 | 68-60 | +4,500 |
| 12 | Minnesota Twins (.540) | 13 | 67-61 | +7,000 |
| 13 | Seattle Mariners (.539) | 12 | 71-58 | +2,800 |
| 14 | Cleveland Guardians (.526) | 14 | 68-59 | +4,000 |
| 15 | San Francisco Giants (.501) | 15 | 61-67 | +100,000 |
| 16 | Texas Rangers (.497) | 18 | 58-70 | +200,000 |
| 17 | Boston Red Sox (.493) | 19 | 62-68 | +40,000 |
| 18 | Chicago White Sox (.492) | 17 | 63-66 | +10,000 |
| 19 | Baltimore Orioles (.485) | 16 | 67-61 | +13,000 |
| 20 | Arizona Diamondbacks (.481) | 20 | 61-67 | +200,000 |
| 21 | Los Angeles Angels (.470) | 22 | 56-74 | +200,000 |
| 22 | Miami Marlins (.454) | 21 | 55-74 | +200,000 |
| 23 | Chicago Cubs (.441) | 23 | 55-75 | +200,000 |
| 24 | Colorado Rockies (.428) | 24 | 56-74 | +200,000 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds (.418) | 25 | 51-77 | +200,000 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals (.412) | 26 | 53-77 | +200,000 |
| 27 | Detroit Tigers | 27 | 50-79 | +200,000 |
| 28 | Oakland Athletics (.354) | 28 | 49-81 | +200,000 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh Pirates (.348) | 29 | 49-80 | +200,000 |
| 30 | Washington Nationals (.347) | 30 | 43-86 | +200,000 |
World Series odds via DraftKings.
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Biggest Risers
Houston Astros (2)
The Houston Astros made the most notable Power Rankings move this week when they passed the New York Yankees. It’s both their success and the Yankees' struggles that contributed to it, but as of now, you’d have to like the odds of the Astros to win the ALCS. Currently, the +155 price at FanDuel to do so is a little rich. However, if we can get north of +175, we may change our tune.
The Astros nearly have the same expected slugging percentage as the Yankees do. That’s a pretty significant statement given the historical numbers New York was putting up a few months ago. They’ve only won six of their last 10, but as I said, the peripherals and the Yankees' descent have combined for this to happen.
Texas Rangers (16)
The Texas Rangers won’t be making the postseason this year, and they seem silly to talk about here. However, they made the most significant jump in this week's Power Rankings. So what I’d like to talk about are their chances to play spoiler down the stretch.
Texas has a series with the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays down the stretch, both presenting an opportunity to significantly impact the AL Playoff race. Why they’ve moved up is the exact reason why they could be a threat to these teams, and that’s their pitching.
We rank their staff above the Toronto Blue Jays and not very far behind the Tampa Bay Rays. They’ve produced a lower expected slugging percentage than teams like the Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, and Seattle Mariners. Margins are thin now and a series like this late in the season makes a Yankees/Rays divisional finish straight bet — at the price of +170 — an appealing one.
Biggest Fallers
Baltimore Orioles (19)
I’m hopeful that it’s not over for my beloved Baltimore Orioles just yet, but they did drop significantly in this week’s Power Rankings.
What has kept them down shouldn’t be much of a surprise to anyone: pitching. They've dropped two of their last three but have found issues with their middle relief.
They're giving up the ninth-highest wOBA percentage in baseball, and that’s a big reason for their drop here. I’m not ready to give up on their playoff hopes just yet. Namely because, after Cleveland, they have three straight series against teams giving up a higher wOBA.
Seattle Mariners (13)
Seattle only dropped one spot this week, but I think they are most notable for doing so. They have a half-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays, who hold the final Wild Card spot.
What’s holding them down this week was more about what was happening around them. Milwaukee and Minnesota both have better batting peripherals, and some expected pitching numbers suggest some regression may be due. I feel okay about the Mariners making the postseason, but I’m not sure it’s a foregone conclusion.
Power Rankings methodology
Chris Hatfield's MLB Power Rankings are based heavily on the Pythagorean Theorem, pioneered by Bill James.
This process estimates the percentage of games a team should win and, therefore, where they fall in line in the MLB hierarchy. After that, he adds some secret sauce to develop a team's "radius," which includes a formula comprised of a team's collective expected ERA, run value, and wOBA, among other items.
This process not only attempts to show you how one formula views the landscape, but also which team has the best value to win the World Series vs. oddsmakers' expectations.
Through various sims, he finds the implied probability of one team achieving postseason success to help readers like yourself cash tickets. Just as importantly, Chris’ MLB Power Rankings are not a subjective list — and do not reflect odds between two teams in a given matchup.
