It’s another loaded slate of midweek baseball, and with that comes tons of betting options.
We have searched for an excellent Tuesday board for the best prop value in the market. As always, try to stay within the recommended pricing as much as possible. Value is only value if the odds match up. Now, let’s get to work.
Here are my free MLB player props for Tuesday, April 8th.
Best MLB player props today
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Easton Lucas under 4.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars) -
Kyle Tucker over 1.5 bases (+133 at Caesars) -
Manny Machado RBI (+133 at Caesars)
MLB props for April 8
Easton Lucas under 4.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars)
The Boston Red Sox are due for an offensive slowdown.
We’ve backed them a ton this season, and it’s paid off handsomely. They’ve scored over eight runs over their last three games. But contextualizing those games is essential. They’ve come against pitchers with hard-hit issues by and large. I think that Easton Lucas has a chance to change that.
The third-year lefty looked sensational in his first start against the Washington Nationals, where he allowed zero runs over five innings. He also only allowed a 15% hard-hit rate – a sharp departure from the past two seasons with a rate over 40%. Is that sustainable? No, probably not by that large of a gap. However, plenty of underlying metrics suggest he may be making a leap in his third season.
There’s also the matter of “everything else”. Toronto kept Lucas’s pitch count down in Spring Training, which only exceeded 70 once. Even in that excellent start against the Nationals, he was hooked after 74 pitches. There’s also the matter of Boston overperforming against lefties this season, with a BABip of .411 not backed up by the underlying metrics surrounding it. I’ll take my chances that some regression can come against a pitcher who has started well with a short leash.
Kyle Tucker over 1.5 bases (+133 at Caesars)
It’s Patrick Corbin Day. Do I need to say more?
Corbin enters another season as a favorite fade for many a bettor and for a good reason. Corbin is coming off one of the worst seasons as a poor last year — particularly from a metric standpoint. His hard-hit rate was in the bottom 3% of baseball, his barrel rate was only slightly better, and he rarely created swings and misses with a whiff rate in the bottom 25% of the sport.
This should all be music to the ears of Chicago Cubs newcomer Kyle Tucker.
The slugger has started the season on an absolute tear with a barrel rate in the top 7% percentile of baseball and a hard-hit rate that’s only slightly below that. He’s been hot lately, too, with multiple hit games in back-to-back games for the second time this season already. At this price point, Tucker is a must-play. He’ll force Corbin to make competitive pitches, and as we’ve seen throughout his career, Corbin usually obliges.
Manny Machado RBI (+133 at Caesars)
Watching these early season games at the temporary home of the cityless Athletics has been enjoyable.
The second-lowest average fence height in the MLB has been attacked with plenty of long balls, and the offense has been plentiful overall. I like the setup for multiple San Diego Padres players tonight, but Manny Machado is my favorite.
The placement in the lineup is undoubtedly the key feature here. In the three spots behind Fernando Tatis Jr and Luis Arraez, Machado has the luxury of being behind two of the best on-base hitters in the sport. Because of that, he could be perceived as “value” every night. This holds more true when you consider the pitching matchup, though.
Jeffery Springs takes the mound for the A’s tonight and has rapidly declined over the past few seasons with a hard-hit rate from 30% in 2023 to 46% in 2024. You don’t need me to tell you this, but the top of this Padres lineup — specifically the three players mentioned — are undoubtedly well-equipped to key in on this. In addition to that, Springs will dish out a heavy amount of fastballs, with the pitch making up nearly 50% of his arsenal. Tatis and Machado have started the season with a slugging percentage over .300 against the four-seamer. Machado is in a prime position to cash in tonight.
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