Welcome to the latest edition of the MLB Power Rankings. If you've followed this each week, then you've followed my skepticism about the New York Mets. They haven't made much of a move in our Power Rankings, but their radius and some other peripherals suggest the regression we've suspected has finally arrived.
The Mets are half a game ahead of the Atlanta Braves atop the NL East standings as of publication. But the momentum for both teams suggests it's the Braves' division for the taking. New York is 5-5 over their last 10 and Max Scherzer is on IL. More importantly, though, some of the Mets' hitting issues are coming to the forefront.
The Mets have the second lowest slugging percentage of any division-leading team in baseball. Only the Cleveland Guardians are lower, and they are historically exceptional at avoiding being struck out with one of the highest contact rates in modern history. This is one of several items regarding my hesitance on the Mets, especially in the postseason. But if Jacob deGrom and Scherzer stay healthy, their lack of big-time hitting may not matter much.
The biggest story in MLB right now has to be Aaron Judge being five away from joining the 60 home run club. There's not a ton to say here, but an acknowledgment of his historical season is necessary. Only six different players have hit 60 home runs in a season. Per MLB.com, Juidge has seen 224 different pitchers this season, more than any other hitter to reach the 60-homer plateau. When Babe Ruth became the first player to achieve this feat, he saw only 67 different pitchers all season.
MLB Power Rankings: Week of September 8
| Rank | Team (Radius) | Last Week's Rank | Record | World Series odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers (.681) | 1 | 94-42 | +350 |
| 2 | Houston Astros (.622) | 3 | 88-49 | +425 |
| 3 | New York Yankees (.621) | 2 | 83-54 | +475 |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves (.615) | 4 | 86-51 | +900 |
| 5 | New York Mets (.591) | 5 | 87-51 | +500 |
| 6 | St. Louis Cardinals (.571) | 6 | 81-56 | +2,200 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Phillies (.554) | 7 | 75-61 | +3,000 |
| 8 | Seattle Mariners (.538) | 13 | 77-60 | +1,400 |
| 9 | Toronto Blue Jays (.537) | 8 | 76-60 | +3,500 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Rays (.535) | 9 | 77-58 | +2,800 |
| 11 | Milwaukee Brewers (.525) | 11 | 71-65 | +4,500 |
| 12 | Minnesota Twins (.523) | 12 | 68-67 | +7,000 |
| 13 | San Diego Padres (.517) | 10 | 76-62 | +2,800 |
| 14 | Cleveland Guardians (.504) | 14 | 70-65 | +4,000 |
| 15 | San Francisco Giants (.496) | 15 | 65-70 | +100,000 |
| 16 | Chicago White Sox (.496) | 18 | 69-68 | +200,000 |
| 17 | Baltimore Orioles (.494) | 19 | 72-71 | +40,000 |
| 18 | Boston Red Sox (.491) | 17 | 67-71 | +10,000 |
| 19 | Texas Rangers (.479) | 16 | 59-77 | +13,000 |
| 20 | Arizona Diamondbacks (.473) | 20 | 65-71 | +200,000 |
| 21 | Los Angeles Angels (.460) | 21 | 60-77 | +200,000 |
| 22 | Chicago Cubs (.427) | 23 | 57-79 | +200,000 |
| 23 | Miami Marlins (.427) | 22 | 55-80 | +200,000 |
| 24 | Cincinnati Reds(.415) | 25 | 54-80 | +200,000 |
| 25 | Colorado Rockies (.413) | 24 | 59-79 | +200,000 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals (.406) | 26 | 56-82 | +200,000 |
| 27 | Detroit Tigers (.396) | 27 | 52-85 | +200,000 |
| 28 | Oakland Athletics (.386) | 28 | 50-87 | OTB |
| 29 | Washington Nationals (.350) | 30 | 48-89 | OTB |
| 30 | Pittsburgh Pirates (.348) | 29 | 50-86 | +200,000 |
World Series odds via DraftKings.
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Biggest Risers
Seattle Mariners (8)
While there wasn't a ton of movement in this week's power rankings, the Seattle Mariners made one of the most significant moves in the history of our rankings. This was a combination of a few things: teams failing around the Mariners, the Mariners' general success, and the closeness of the radius numbers between teams in their ranking range.
I'm ready to accept Seattle as a legitimate threat to make some postseason noise. Their pitching as a collective still concerns me, but it's tough to argue against this movement.
The Mariners are 8-2 over their last 10 and what makes them so challenging is how difficult it is to get their hitters out. They have one of the rare combinations of being Top 10 in baseball in chase rate but also being Top 10 in chase contact rate. That's another way to say they don't take many bad swings, but they usually get contact when they do. That's a big reason for their rise in this week's rankings and a key for their success as we advance.
Chicago White Sox (16)
Will the Chicago White Sox make the postseason? Well, if I'm being honest, I don't expect them to. However, they have made notable moves in this week's power rankings.
I had already considered Chicago dead a few weeks ago, and they've impressed me. They are 6-4 over their last ten games and set two back in what looks to be an electric race for first in the American League Central. We now rank the White Sox as a Top-15 offense for the first time in months, and that's the biggest reason for their movement. They have averaged 4.1 runs since the start of the month, but some of their deeper numbers suggest significant positive regression to the end of the season.
Biggest Fallers
San Diego Padres (13)
San Diego has the biggest faller once again. I'm close to giving up on any postseason hopes for this team. The Padres haven't been good since making the massive trade deadline moves. Since the start of August, they have been 17th in runs scored per game. Over their last 10 games, they are 6-4, which is an improvement but the analytics remain low on them.
The Padres currently have one of the most significant discrepancies between the actual and expected winning percentages. And I don't mean the good type of discrepancy. Their winning percentage has them as a borderline Top-10 team in baseball while their win expectancy sees them closer to a borderline Top-15 team. That's a huge difference.
Pittsburgh Pirates (13)
The Pirates have — for the moment — fallen to the dubious position of worst team in baseball amongst our power rankings despite technically still not being officially eliminated from the postseason. The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10, which isn't the worst in baseball, but it's not good either.
Pittsburgh is last in both the expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. Its pitching staff ranks 3rd in the expected batting average and 6th in the expected slugging percentage. With our rankings meant to be as much predictive as reacting to the moment, that lethal combination was enough for the Washington Nationals — who are officially eliminated from the postseason — to surpass them for the moment.
Power Rankings methodology
Chris Hatfield's MLB Power Rankings are based heavily on the Pythagorean Theorem, pioneered by Bill James.
This process estimates the percentage of games a team should win and, therefore, where they fall in line in the MLB hierarchy. After that, he adds some secret sauce to develop a team's "radius," which includes a formula comprised of a team's collective expected ERA, run value, and wOBA, among other items.
This process not only attempts to show you how one formula views the landscape, but also which team has the best value to win the World Series vs. oddsmakers' expectations.
Through various sims, he finds the implied probability of one team achieving postseason success to help readers like yourself cash tickets. Just as importantly, Chris’ MLB Power Rankings are not a subjective list — and do not reflect odds between two teams in a given matchup.
