We are two weeks into the MLB season and there are still a ton of markets to find plus expected value. The hitting conditions are improving, there’s plenty of wind today, and things are looking great for plenty of Over markets (or pitcher Unders).
Today, we’re grabbing a pair of Blue Jays for solid plus money and then drinking some juice betting on the Baltimore offense that’s cooking. Check out my three favorite MLB picks for the player prop market this evening.
MLB props for April 12
Picks made on 4/12/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best MLB bets today
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Prop bet #1: Gausman going deep
The Blue Jays starting pitchers haven’t recorded more than 13 outs in three straight games, with the bullpen getting put to work. Toronto might not need a lot of arms today as Kevin Gausman is taking the ball and facing arguably the worst offense in baseball.
Gausman has recorded 18 outs in both of his starts this season and needed 90 or fewer pitches to do so in those games. THE BAT is projecting 100 pitches for the Toronto righty with a max of 110 pitches and 18.8 outs. That means the Toronto ace will go deep today, making the Over 18.5 outs at massive plus money solid value.
Currently, Caesars is posting a +168 price on Gausman’s Over 18.5 outs, and with 18.8 projected in a prime matchup with an overworked bullpen, that’s an easy Over play even if you value it as a coin flip.
These 18.5 Over markets likely have one more week of holding this much value as the books will likely drop these numbers as pitchers all start to reach the 100-pitch count.
This is an AL Cy Young contender facing one of the easiest lineups in baseball. That alone is worth a play here but when we add in the bullpen use, the confidence is much higher.
Kevin Gausman Prop: Over 18.5 outs (+168 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: Grand theft Varsho
This might come off as a very Toronto-centric card, but when you get the Toronto No. 5 hitter at +205 to knock in a run when the guy in front of him is hitting .477, you always take the Over.
Daulton Varsho will face lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, but the lefty-on-lefty isn't a huge concern here. Varsho has faced plenty of southpaws this season and is 4-for-13 vs. them. With Rodriguez struggling to get deep, Varsho could see plenty of the Detroit bullpen that has the worst ERA (6.97) in the American League.
E-Rod has been hit hard by left-handed bats this season, possessing a 1.159 OPS against. He’s given up seven runs over 10 innings which include three home runs allowed. Left-handed bats also have a better edge in the new dimensions of the Rogers Center.
There will be plenty of RBI opportunities for Varsho and an extra-base hit might not even be needed today to cash a run with Chapman, Vlad Guerrero, and Bo Bichette hitting in front of him. The Toronto team total is sitting at 5.5, so the Jays are projecting to score early and often today.
He has just four RBI on the season, but if he continues to hit out of the five hole and the bats in front of him stay hot, that number is going to grow quickly.
Daulton Varsho Prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+205)
Prop bet #3: Rookie mistake
This Baltimore lineup found its stroke last night in a 12-8 win over the A’s who have the league’s worst ERA at 7.88. Ken Waldichuk and his 14.54 ERA will try to slow down an offense that has a ton of power and couples that with great speed at the bottom of the lineup.
The markets for Austin Hays have shortened up as have Ryan Mountcastle’s — a nine RBI night will do that. However, there is still value in fading Waldichuk even with the vig.
Waldichuk has given up 14 runs over 8.2 innings vs. the Angels and Rays, and the rookie might be buying a ticket to the minors if he can’t figure things out today vs. an offense that ranks fourth in slugging and third in wRC+. The left-handed starter is not missing bats, is getting barrelled hard, and has a 9.74 xERA which ranks in the Bottom 6% in baseball.
This is a solid matchup for the Orioles’ offense and I’m willing to pay 40 cents on Waldichuk’s Over 2.5 earned runs. Only one team in baseball has a better OPS vs. left-handed pitching than the Orioles to start the season.
Ken Waldichuk Prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-140 at bet365)
