The bad news? It's Monday.
The good news? We have a solid MLB slate to shop around for some of the best MLB player prop bets.
By his standards, Yordan Alvarez has been in the midst of a slump. But sooner or later, he will break out of it, and tonight's matchup in Miami looks promising for the Astros slugger. We'll also head West to look at a hurler from the Seattle Mariners and his strikeout total while backing Marcus Semien to keep his hitting streak alive.
Read along as we review the MLB odds and find the best MLB player props for Monday, August 14.
MLB props for August 14
- Alvarez Over 1.5 TB
- Gilbert Over 5.5 Ks
- Semien Over 1.5 TB
Picks made on August 14 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some MLB action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet loses at BetMGM! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best promo codes for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Air Yordan
It's quite a good matchup for Houston Astros' superstar Yordan Alvarez tonight when he faces Miami Marlins' southpaw Braxton Garrett.
From a raw number perspective, Alvarez has gone Over this number twice in his last 10 games and failed to do so in five straight matchups. However, we should see some positive regression for the Astros slugger this evening.
Alvarez owns the 21st-highest ISO rating against lefties in the league. The sinker also leads the way among the pitches that Garrett throws, and Alvarez has the highest hard-hit rate against sinkers this season among Astros players.
I expect him to mash one tonight.
Yordan Alvarez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Prop bet #2: Lo-Gang
This had one of the better values of most props for me today. I priced this number at 6.5, so getting a full strikeout number off my projections feels like something I must take.
There are a few promising players in the Kansas City Royals lineup and their offense has an awkward combination of being in the Top 5 of baseball in chase rate while also ranking in the Bottom 5 when it comes to chase contact rate. Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert should be able to take advantage of that, given his chase rate lands in the Top 25% of the MLB.
Over the last three games, the Royals have averaged above the league average in strikeouts. On paper, they are team strikeouts at a slightly above rate for the season. But down the stretch, I expect that number to go up as they become less interested in competing and integrate some younger players into their starting lineups.
This is a favorable spot for Gilbert, and I'll bank on at least 6 Ks tonight.
Logan Gilbert prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110)
Prop bet #3: Marcus Mashes
As I mentioned early on, Marcus Semien has been on a hot streak lately, exceeding his total bases total in eight of the last 10 games. I'm expecting that train to continue rolling here.
Patrick Sandoval takes the mound opposite of Semien tonight, and the Los Angeles Angels left-hander has been a regular fade of mine. The lefty hasn't struggled with giving up a lot of hard contact, but his expected batting average sits in the Bottom 25% of baseball.
Semien should prosper against pitching like this, considering his elite baserunning speed and ability to put the barrel on the ball. The Texas Rangers' second baseman also boasts a batting average of .280 against southpaws. Of the hits he's gotten against lefties this season, 40% have gone for extra bases.
Whether it comes off multiple hits or the one extra-base hit, we really like our chances here.
Marcus Semien prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
