The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers will conclude a three-game series this afternoon, with the Tigers aiming for a surprising sweep.
After racking up 23 runs against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the three-game series before this one, the Bronx Bombers have been held to just two runs over two games at Comerica. Detroit will look to keep its winning ways going, but our Yankees vs. Tigers predictions expect tough sledding for Jack Flaherty.
I break it down below as I bring you my MLB picks for this matinee on Wednesday, April 9.
Yankees vs Tigers prediction
My Yankees vs Tigers best bet: Jack Flaherty Under 6.5 strikeouts (-137 at Caesars)
You're paying a premium for the New York Yankees in this spot, and I get it.
New York has had a great knack over the past two seasons of avoiding sweeps, and oddsmakers have taken notice.
In addition, you're paying a bit of a premium on Max Fried being on the mound, which may or may not be worth it. I give him a slight edge over Jack Flaherty, but it isn't easy to quantify how big it is this early in the season. I make New York's moneyline price around -158, so I like the Yankees straight up, but there's better value elsewhere.
This number for Flaherty is too high based on what we've seen from New York this year. A team last year with Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Soto, and Gleyber Torres would have me reconsidering things, but this is a different group.
Flaherty has relied heavily on his slider to get strikeouts throughout his career, and this year is no different.
While the fastball may make up over 50% of his pitching arsenal, his off-speed pitches get the strikeouts. The slider is producing a 36% whiff rate through two starts this season and has been used as his primary put-away pitch.
The problem for Flaherty is that the Yankees have been good at making contact against this particular pitch.
Looking through the lineup today, only Jazz Chisholm has a K rate above 30% against the slider this season. Even though it's still a relatively small data size, this narrative fits the numbers of most of these players from a season ago.
While it's his best pitch, Flaherty may want to stay away from the fastball more today. We've heavily documented how good New York has been against that pitch this season. We saw yet another real-life example of it yesterday when Tarik Skubal gave up back-to-back hits on the fastball to open the game and almost entirely abandoned it.
A similar departure could make Flaherty less efficient, as he's still likely to give up plenty of contact. That's another feather in our cap when we are on the Under Ks side of this bet. I made this number 5.4, so I'm comfortable paying for the juice.
Yankees vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Jack Flaherty Under 6.5 strikeouts
Under 7
Paul Goldschmidt 1+ RBI
It's not always profitable, but it's almost always EV+ to pair an Under with a player to get an RBI. The boost is so substantial that it makes the risk worth it.
For the most part, these pitchers should take care of business. The weather remains terrible, and it's shown up in the first two games in the series, with at least one team struggling to score runs. I suspect we see something similar today. Even though Flaherty won't get a ton of whiffs, he should do a good job of getting soft contact. Fried, on the other hand, simply has a great matchup.
I added Paul Goldschmidt to get an RBI for two reasons. One, he's typically hitting behind Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge in the lineup. The other is pitcher-based. I expect him to get plenty of contact today, having some of the lowest whiff rates on Flaherty's go-to strikeout pitches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Tigers odds
Yankees vs Tigers live odds
Yankees vs Tigers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -150 | Detroit +125
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+135) | Detroit +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Yankees vs Tigers trend
The Detroit Tigers have only hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 102 games (-21.15 Units / -19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Tigers.
How to watch Yankees vs Tigers and game info
| Location | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-9-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video, FanDuel Sports Network - Detroit |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (1-0, 2.61 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Jack Flaherty (1-0, 2.38 ERA) |
Yankees vs Tigers latest injuries
Yankees vs Tigers weather
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