The Los Angeles Dodgers look to avoid a surprising sweep at the hands of the Washington Nationals with Game 3 on tap for Wednesday afternoon.
Two beatable starters take the mound — L.A.’s Landon Knack and Washington’s Jake Irvin — and the books expect runs in bunches, pricing the total up at 9.
There’s value in alternative markets — ahem, player props — where I’m targeting Michael Conforto with my Dodgers vs. Nationals predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, April 9
Dodgers vs Nationals prediction
My Dodgers vs Nationals best bet: Michael Conforto Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at bet365)
Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin has surrendered six earned runs across his first 10 innings. One does not want to carry a 5.40 ERA, 11.64 xERA, and 6.87 FIP into a start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but here he is.
It’s still early, of course, but the underlying numbers are appalling. The Oklahoma product ranks in the first percentile in xERA and the second percentile in xBA. He’s allowing far too much hard contact (seventh-percentile barrel rate, 11th-percentile hard-hit rate) and isn’t making anyone miss (13th-percentile whiff rate).
Irvin, a right-hander, has especially struggled against left-handed bats, allowing a .440 BA while posting a 2.25 WHIP and 9.44 FIP. Those numbers are inflated in a small sample, but it’s noteworthy that his numbers against lefties a year ago were less than sterling (1.28 WHIP, 4.96 FIP).
One Dodger bat who stands to benefit on Wednesday is Michael Conforto. I’ve targeted the former Oregon State Beaver in the player prop market early this year and will continue doing so as long as he’s healthy.
Conforto’s underlying numbers (89th-percentile xwOBA, 87th-percentile xSLG, 92nd-percentile barrel rate) are strong. There’s not a lot of pressure on his shoulders in a loaded Dodgers lineup, and he’s in a position to have those quality metrics result in an increase in counting stats.
The 32-year-old has the platoon advantage and has a 129 wRC+, .358 wOBA, and .224 ISO against RHP in his career. Irvin’s two most frequently utilized pitches against lefties are his four-seamer and curve. While Conforto isn’t great against the curve (62 wRC+), he should destroy the four-seamers (139 wRC+).
The Nats have been dreadful out of the bullpen (5.90 ERA, 1.79 WHIP), and their underlying metrics (4.79 xFIP, 4.53 SIERA) only indicate slight positive regression. There’s also a poor outfield defense playing behind them.
Conforto stands to dole out damage even after Irvin is pulled, and I can’t shy away from the plus-money price on him exceeding 1.5 total bases.
Dodgers vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers team total Over 5.5
Jake Irvin Under 4.5 strikeouts
Michael Conforto Over 1.5 total bases
The Dodgers have been quiet on offense this series, scoring six runs in the first two games. I’m betting that they double that output in Game 3 — this lineup is too good to stay down for long, and it’s not a bad matchup.
LA has the second-highest wRC+ (142) and wOBA (.374) against right-handed pitching. Pairing a patient approach (12.3% BB%) with power (.254 ISO) is never a bad plate approach, especially against a struggling Irvin and a beleaguered bullpen behind him.
Irvin may improve upon his microscopic 11.4% strikeout rate as the season progresses, but the most bearish projection systems paint him with just a 17.6% K-rate. The big right-hander has recorded fewer than 4.5 strikeouts in four straight starts going back to last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Nationals odds
Dodgers vs Nationals live odds
Dodgers vs Nationals opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -170 | Washington +145
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (-110) | Washington +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Dodgers vs Nationals trend
Michael Conforto has recorded 2+ total bases in five of his last six games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Nationals.
How to watch Dodgers vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, DC |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-9-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Los Angeles, MASN |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Landon Knack (1-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Jake Irvin (0-0, 5.40 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Nationals latest injuries
Dodgers vs Nationals weather
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