Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Lynn Gets Pounded by Cubbies

Prop bet #1: MVP performance

All of a sudden Christian Yelich looks like the guy who won the National League MVP in the 2018 season, playing a big part in why the Milwaukee Brewers have been able to claw their way back to the top of the National League West standings.

Up until about a month ago, it was looking like it was going to be another good, not great, season for the Brewers. But then something clicked, and Yelich found the magic he had at the plate a few years ago.

The outfielder is hitting .361 with a 1.104 OPS, including 14 extra-base hits, 22 RBI, and 19 runs scored over his last 20 games. He is currently on a seven-game hitting streak which includes going 3-for-5 with a three-run home run in last night’s game vs. the Cincinnati Reds.

This afternoon, the Brew Crew will try to win the series with their division rivals and Yelich looks like a solid bet to keep doing his part when he digs into the batter’s box against Reds’ starter Ben Lively.

The 31-year-old RHP is pitching to a 4.09 ERA as a starter, and his expected ERA is sitting at 4.53 for the season. Lively is also surrendering a .255 expected batting average and a .448 expected slugging percentage to opponents — both of which rank in the Bottom 30% of MLB. 

Yelich has also had success against Lively in the past, going 4-for-11 (.364) with two doubles and a dinger. That’s good for a .769 xSLG. 

Lively has a relatively short leash, averaging 85.2 pitches and 5.5 innings per start. This means he’ll have to hand the ball off to a Cincinnati bullpen that ranks 28th in MLB in xFIP for extended innings. 

I’m backing Yelich to keep swinging a hot stick and go Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs, a number he's eclipsed 13 times in his last 20 games.

Christian Yelich prop: Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Tony Gonesolin

The Toronto Blue Jays have had their fair share of tough losses this season, but last night’s 8-7 extra-inning L to the Los Angeles Dodgers might have taken the cake.

The Blue Jays took a 7-3 lead in the top of the ninth thanks to a bases-clearing double from Danny Jansen, but the Dodgers stormed back to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth and eventually won it in the 10th.

Toronto will need to put that performance behind it quickly when it faces off against Tony Gonsolin in Wednesday’s series finale.

Despite their inconsistent play at times, the Blue Jays' bats have been coming around of late and should be a tough matchup for the Dodgers’ righty. 

Gonsolin owns a 3.94 ERA this season, but the advanced numbers say he’s due for some regression. He owns a 4.73 FIP and a 4.84 xERA. Gonslin also ranks in the 34th percentile or worse in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and strikeout rate.

Now he’ll have to go against a Toronto lineup that is starting to click. The Jays already have 25 hits in this series and rank third in batting average, ninth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.

That has me thinking it will be a short outing for Gonsolin, who doesn’t have the longest leash to begin with. Gonsolin averages just 79.9 pitches and 5.17 innings per start this season. His outs-recorded prop for this game is sitting at 16.5, a number he’s fallen below in nine of his 15 starts and in four of his last five overall.

Tony Gonsolin prop: Under 16.5 outs recorded (-135)

Prop bet #3: Lynnsanely horrible

I would say this could be Lance Lynn’s final start as a member of the Chicago White Sox, but his trade value must be close to zilch at this point. The veteran RHP will try to do his best to improve that value when he takes the mound on Wednesday night against the cross-town rivals, the Chicago Cubs.

To put it simply, Lynn’s 2023 campaign has been a mess. Besides striking out his fair share of opposing hitters, basically nothing has gone right for the 36-year-old. 

The righty is getting hit hard and often, pitching to a 4.81 xERA while surrendering a .250 xBA and a .461 xSLG to opponents. That xSLG is in the Bottom 15% of MLB.

The All-Star break didn’t seem to do him any favors. Lynn has been tagged for 13 runs (10 earned) on 14 hits over his first 12 innings in the second half. He has now allowed three or more earned runs in 15 of his last 19 starts and in eight of his last nine overall... and there is no reason to think that will change against the Cubs.

The Cubbies don't have the most potent lineup in baseball, but it isn’t terrible either. In fact, it’s about as middle of the pack as you can get. The Cubs rank 16th in batting average, 17th in OPS, and 16th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season, meaning they are more than capable of doing some damage against Lynn.

Another reason Lynn gives up so many runs is that the White Sox just let him work, no matter how the start is going. He averages 101.1 pitches and over 5 2/3 inning per start this season.

That means plenty of opportunities for the Cubbies to put up some runs vs. Lynn.

Lance Lynn prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-140)