Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Cease, Gray Highlight Thin Thursday Slate

Prop bet #1: 50 Shades of Gray

The most interesting thing about the New York Mets heading into Tuesday’s upcoming trade deadline is who will still be on the roster by the time Wednesday rolls around.

Prior to the season, no one thought the Mets would be sellers at this point, but at 47-54 and 7.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League, here we are. And it'll be interesting to see how motivated this Mets team will be heading into the season’s final two months. 

Tonight, their job is to focus on Washington Nationals starter Josiah Gray. While Gray arguably hasn’t been as good as his 3.45 ERA says, I like this matchup for him against the Mets — at least when it comes to his strikeout total.

The 25-year-old right-hander has seen an uptick in his strikeout rate recently. Over the last eight games, that number has bumped up to 21.7%, punching out 5+ batters six times in that stretch of games. He also has a K-rate of 23.6% in three career starts vs. the Mets.

That includes Gray baffling the Mets in a meeting back on April 25, shutting them out over six innings on just four hits while recording a season-high nine strikeouts. And this time around, the Mets probably care a little bit less and their strikeout numbers may be backing up that theory.

New York has been one of the better teams in baseball in limiting the strikeouts, but since the start of July, they have the 14th highest K-rate at 23%.

When you also consider how reliable Gray has been when it comes to working deep into ball games (he averages nearly 5 2/3 innings per start and hasn’t completed five just once this season), it means he should have plenty of opportunities to go Over this number. The plus money is the cherry on top.

Josiah Gray prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+118)

Prop bet #2: Cubbies chase Miles

Let’s continue the disappointment train by taking a look at Miles Mikolas and the St. Louis Cardinals. A year after winning the NL Central, the Cards are trying to pull off the somewhat impressive first-to-worst parlay. 

A big reason for the Cards’ struggles this season has been the starting pitching, and Mikolas has certainly been a part of that. The veteran right-hander is pitching to a 4.95 expected ERA while his expected batting average of .288 and his expected slugging percentage of .465 rank in the fifth and 13th percentile, respectively. And as always, a Mikolas strikeout feels as rare as ever. 

As a result, he hasn’t been working as deep into games as we’ve been used to over the last few seasons. He's averaging 5.76 innings pitched per start and 5.5 IP over his last six starts. This means we’ll be taking a hard look at the Under 17.5 on his outs recorded prop when he takes the mound against the rival Chicago Cubs tonight.

The Cubs are probably still a year or so away from real contention in the Central but they're playing with much more heart than the Cards these days. They’ve also done a solid job of handling right-handed pitchers this season. Chicago ranks 15th in batting average, 13th in OPS, and 14th in wRC+ vs. righties and they’ve been a problem for Mikolas this season.

This will be the third time Mikolas has faced the Cubs this season. A May 8 meeting lasted just 4 1/3 innings after some surprising strikeouts and walks quickly increased his pitch count. The latest was his last start in which the Cubbies tagged him for five runs on 11 hits over five innings.

I like the Cubs' chances of racking up that pitch count once again tonight and love the plus money on this Under. He’s completed six innings in just three of his last six starts.

Miles Mikolas prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+145)

Prop bet #3: Cease fire

With Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez already out the door, the selloff for the Chicago White Sox is officially underway and it sounds like most of their roster is available for trade. With two exceptions, of course: Luis Robert and tonight’s starter Dylan Cease.

The White Sox right-hander got off to a rocky start this season (like most of his teammates), but since the start of June, Cease is looking much more like the guy who finished second in AL Cy Young voting a season ago. And he’ll look to keep that up when he takes the mound against an AL Central rival in the Cleveland Guardians.

Cease is pitching to a 3.00 ERA and a 2.68 FIP while limiting opponents to a .225 batting average and striking out 12.4 batters per nine innings over nine starts since the beginning of June. 

While the Guardians can keep the strikeouts down, Cease has been effective in two starts against them this season, allowing five runs on 10 hits over 12 1/3 innings of work. And those starts came in the middle of his mid-season lull before he found his current groove.

Cease will have a great chance to keep that going tonight. This Cleveland team doesn’t have a ton of pop in its lineup and ranks 21st in OPS and 20th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.

I’m backing Cease to put on another strong performance and stay below the 2.5 on his earned runs allowed prop, a number he's stayed Under in seven of his last nine starts.

Dylan Cease prop: Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)