Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Wander Franco Time

Prop bet #1: Walker sets 'em down

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins are duking it out for one of the coveted National League wild card spots this season, so this week’s four-game series at LoanDepot Park will be very important for both teams.

The Phillies are hoping to start the series off on the right foot by handing the ball to Taijuan Walker for the opener. The veteran right-hander has found his mojo. Walker is pitching to a 2.43 ERA and limiting opponents to a .205 batting average over his last nine starts and he's seen his strikeouts tick up over this run of success.

The right-hander’s K-rate for the season is below league average at 20.9% but that number has bumped up to 23.9% in his recent hot streak and I like him to keep trending in that direction vs. the Marlins.

This will be Walker’s first start vs. the Fish this season, which is a little funny considering he faced them six times last season alone. Now, Miami doesn’t strike out a ton, but Walker was very effective when it came to punching them out over those six starts. The right-hander's strikeout rate was a whopping 29.1% in those starts, striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings.

Walker also has length going for him. He has been very reliable when it comes to working deep into games, averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings and 95.8 pitches per start over his last nine outings. 

All that adds up to plenty of opportunities for Walker to surpass a reasonable strikeout total of 4.5, which we are getting at plus money. A number he has eclipsed in seven of his last nine starts.

Taijuan Walker prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+106 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Wanderboy

There is no doubt the Tampa Bay Rays have been scuffling of late as they are now staring up at the Baltimore Orioles in the American League East standings. But the team secured a much-needed series win over the Houston Astros on the road over the weekend, and a big reason for that was Wander Franco.

The Rays’ star shortstop had been going through a bit of a midseason lull, seeing his batting average drop to a season-low .262, but he sure shook that off against the Astros. Franco went 5-for-11 (.455) with two extra-base hits, three walks, and no strikeouts and he’ll hope he can carry that momentum over into tonight’s big road matchup against Domingo German and the New York Yankees.

This is a matchup wherein Franco should thrive. German’s perfect game against the A’s was without a doubt the high point of his season. Otherwise, the right-hander is pitching to a 4.20 expected ERA and his .418 expected slugging percentage ranks in the 37th percentile in MLB.

German is also interesting because he throws his curveball more than any other pitch. This isn’t a recipe for success against Franco, who has a .310 xBA vs. breaking balls this season. So, it’s not a surprise to see the Rays’ shortstop is 3-for-7 in his career vs. German with no strikeouts.

With Franco’s approach at the plate, you knew it was only a matter of time before he broke out of his funk. So, let’s take advantage of that by taking the Over on his total bases tonight at solid plus money.

Wander Franco prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

Prop bet #3: Nelson doesn't go long

The Arizona Diamondbacks look like buyers heading into tomorrow’s trade deadline, and one of the areas they need to address is the starting rotation. No offense to tonight’s starter Ryne Nelson, but things behind Zac Gallen looks a little thin.

Having Nelson as arguably your third-best starter doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The 25-year-old right-hander in his second big-league season has certainly shown some flashes of his potential. But overall the advanced numbers aren’t pretty.

Nelson is pitching to a 5.04 xERA while surrendering a .267 xBA and a .468 xSLG. All of which are in the Bottom 18% of MLB. He also isn’t striking out anyone. His 15.4% K-rate is in the fifth percentile. 

Tonight, he takes the ball against the San Francisco Giants for the third time. The first, back on May 12, did not go well. Nelson got tagged for four runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings. The next, was much better, limiting them to one run on three hits over seven innings.

But the fact the Giants rank 14th in OPS and 13th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers and the numbers above tend to have me thinking a result similar to the first meeting is more likely this time around.

Nelson also has a relatively short leash, averaging 86.7 pitches and just over 5 1/3 innings per start this season. His outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5, likely due to some recent success, but he generally doesn’t get a ton of pitches to work with and has gone Under this number in 13 of his 21 starts.

Ryne Nelson prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-135)