Who wants to smash some southpaws? And by that, I mean we’re fading a couple of left-handed pitchers who have to take the mound in some tough matchups in MLB tonight.
The Rockies’ Kyle Freeland takes the ball at what is arguably the best team in the National League, the Atlanta Braves, and what they do best is bashing lefties. Then we head out West where Fernando Tatis Jr. and the resurgent Padres take on Guardians rookie lefty Logan Allen.
I've dug through the MLB odds and have found my three favorite MLB prop picks, including these two and one more gem. Check them out below!
MLB props for June 15
- Freeland Over 6.5 HA
- Reynolds Over 1.5 TB
- Allen Over 5.5 HA
Picks made on June 15 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Hit parade
It could be a rough night on the mound for Colorado Rockies starter Kyle Freeland. That’s because he’ll be staring across at the best team in the National League — the Atlanta Braves. And if there is one thing the Braves do best, it’s mash southpaws.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, all of them... they all crush lefties. Atlanta leads MLB in batting average and OPS and is second in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers. That has led to a whopping 6.11 runs per nine innings when facing off against lefties thus far.
And it’s not like Freeland has been an elite southpaw in 2023. The 30-year-old hasn’t been as good as his 3.95 ERA indicates with his expected ERA of 4.59. That’s because Freeland is getting hit hard and often, surrendering a .271 expected batting average and a .459 expected slugging percentage — both of which rank in the 23rd percentile.
It doesn’t help that Freeland isn’t striking out anyone either. The lefty is punching out just 15.7% of the batters he faces and ranks in the 11th percentile in baseball. Pitching to contact against this Braves might not be a recipe for success.
Freeland’s hits allowed prop is set at a high 6.5 for this matchup, but realistically he hasn’t faced anything like this Braves lineup yet.
He is already allowing 9.1 hits per nine innings and has allowed seven or more hits four times in his last 11 starts. Those four games were against Pittsburgh (twice), Texas, and Miami. Those teams rank 10th, fifth, and third in OPS vs LHP this year.
At +125, the Over 6.5 hits allowed makes this bet more than worthwhile.
Kyle Freeland prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (+125)
Prop bet #2: Flyin Bryan
Marcus Stroman has been a solid presence at the top of the Chicago Cubs rotation this season. So much so, it sounds like he could be a candidate to be moved at the trade deadline if the Cubs don’t extend him.
Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher who uses a mix of three different fastballs and a slurve to create soft contact. And generally, that’s the result. He is pitching to a 2.42 ERA this season and is limiting opponents to .353 xSlugging. But while he isn’t getting barreled up a ton, he is still giving up a lot of contact — and that could provide us some value in tonight’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
It’s clear the 32-year-old RHP plans to pitch to contact, but he is probably giving up more than he would like. Stroman is giving up a .249 xBA to opponents while ranking in the 35th percentile in whiff rate, and in the 36th percentile in average exit velocity.
So, basically, he’s giving up more than his fair share of hard contact, just not for bombs. So, a contact-hitting team, like the Pirates, for example, can put up some solid numbers against him. And one Buccos’ player in particular has had plenty of success against Stroman — Bryan Reynolds.
The Pirates outfielder is having a good season at the dish, hitting .286 with a .831 OPS, and he’s locked in heading into tonight’s game. Reynolds is currently in the middle of a seven-game hitting streak where he has a .375 average and a .974 OPS.
While it’s not a huge sample size, Reynolds is 5-for-7 (.857) with a double in his career when facing off against Stroman. That’s good for a massive .965 xSlugging.
Stroman will also have to hand the ball to a struggling Cubs’ bullpen. Chicago’s relievers rank 25th in ERA, and 24th in WHIP and opponent batting average. That’s enough to get me on board with Reynolds to go Over 1.5 total bases at nice plus money.
Bryan Reynolds prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+145)
Prop bet #3: Logan (un)lucky
It has obviously been a disappointing first few months of the 2023 MLB season for a San Diego Padres team that had World Series aspirations. At 33-34, they sit in fourth place in the National League West.
The lineup has been the biggest issue to this point but there are signs they are starting to turn things around — highlighted by Fernando Tatis Jr. starting to find his stroke and going nuclear the last couple of weeks... leading the team to wins in seven of their last 10 games.
Now, the Padres have some really interesting splits at the plate this season. They struggle against right-handed pitchers, but against lefties, they look like one of the more dangerous lineups in the NL, ranking eighth in the MLB in OPS and wRC+. And luckily, for them, they get to face Cleveland Guardians rookie southpaw Logan Allen tonight.
The 24-year-old is making just his 10th career start and was thrust into the Guardians rotation due to their multitude of injuries early on with mixed results.
The lefty owns a solid 3.31 ERA but his xERA is more than a run higher at 4.35. That’s likely due to the fact he is getting hit hard and often. Allen is surrendering a .265 xBA and a .435 xSlugging to opponents over his first nine starts — both ranking in the 33rd percentile or worse.
That’s working out to 9.9 hits per nine innings. Allen’s hits allowed prop is sitting at 5.5 with the Over at even money, and he’s given up seven or more hits in six of his last seven starts.
Also helping this out is the fact that he is averaging nearly six innings per start. This means plenty of opportunities for the Padres to rack up the knocks.
Logan Allen prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
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