The MLB season is here and with it, all the glorious prop markets that come with it. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props to hopefully build that bank account.
Today, we’re joining in on the Plakata noise from an MVP candidate, fading a solid pitcher who is dealing with velocity issues, and looking for the Orioles to continue with their swing-and-miss ways.
Editor's note: Ontario! Welcome to the world of regulated sports betting. Visit our Ontario sports betting page for the best legal betting sites available to you and all the information you need about this emerging industry.
MLB props for April 16
Picks made on 4/16/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Today’s best MLB prop bets
Plakata
Don’t let Paul Blackburn’s 0.00 ERA fool ya, this is still a pitcher who tops out at 92 mph and has a career 5.74 ERA coming into the season while posting a 9.84 ERA in spring training. He may have fooled the Rays in his opening start, but tonight’s matchup versus the Jays in Toronto presents a whole new world of challenges.
The Jays offense sits fourth in baseball in slugging percentage and ISO and the man leading the charge is unsurprisingly Vladimir Guerrero Jr., just a night removed from hitting his league-leading fifth homer. He’s also second in the league in total bases behind Jose Ramirez and has 13 total bases across 14 at-bats at the Rogers Center.
Last season, the Jays saw Blackburn at home and chased him before the fourth inning after launching three long balls off the Oakland starter. Although Vladdy didn’t get in on that action, he certainly could tonight in a great matchup. We aren’t getting greedy here and just taking the Over 1.5 total bases at -115.
Jr.'s HR/FB ratio sits at an incredible 62.5%, he’s spraying the field (40.9 % pull, 31.8% center, 27.3% opp) and avoiding soft contact (81.9% med/hard contact). He’s hit the Over 1.5 total bases in all four of his home games so far this season and we don’t see any reason to bet against it today versus Blackburn.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-115)
Julio's not up to speed
Julio Urias was roughed up in his first start of the season and lasted just two innings while failing to strike out a single batter. He’ll try to turn things around Saturday as he faces the Cincinnati Reds who haven’t impressed offensively this season but that's also baked into Urias’ strikeout prop price.
The real concerning thing and the issue we feel gives us our biggest edge, is the starter’s velocity. His average velocity in his opening start was 2.6 mph different than his 2021 average velocity. That might not seem like a massive deal, but it really is considering it affects every pitch and his spin rate.
Of all the pitchers so far this season, only Robbie Ray has had a bigger negative change in average velocity than Urias from last year's numbers. He struggled with the same issues in spring training where he also got hit hard. His first start lasted just 57 pitches and we know Dave Roberts can pull the cord early on his starters.
Knowing all this info and facing limited markets, we’re left with the choices of Under 4.5 strikeouts at +124 (44.6%) or Under 5.5 strikeouts at -161 (61.7%). -161 is a little much for us and we’re projecting him to record under 15 total outs. If Urias goes out and struggles with velocity again, he won’t be fooling anyone at the dish.
Pick: Julio Urias Under 4.5 strikeouts (+124)
Taillon working the strike zone
Despite taking the loss in his opening start to the Blue Jays, Yankees starter Jameson Taillon looked sharp in his opener. He threw 72 pitches (53 for strikes), struck out six and didn’t give up a free pass versus an elite offense.
Now, he’ll get to ride that confidence into a matchup tonight with the Baltimore Orioles who have the second-worst wOBA in the AL and are striking out at 28.4%, the second-highest rate in basketball.
The former second-overall pick didn’t overwork himself last season with just 144 innings and he comes into the 2022 season looking fresh. 32% of his pitches were called or swinging strikes in his start last week and now he gets to face a Baltimore offense that has struck out 33 times over its last three games.
To make things even more advantageous for Taillon is his recent success versus the Orioles. The righty saw Baltimore twice last season and although he went just 11 total innings, he had no issues mowing down the AL East’s worst as he racked up an impressive 17 punchouts.
We were impressed when we saw him battle the Jays, and now he gets a much better matchup Saturday and a chance to stifle this weak Baltimore offense that’s been swinging and missing a lot to open the season.
Pick: Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $63.75 on a $10 bet?
Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
