Happy Monday! The Major League Baseball slate isn't as bursting with action as some days, but there is still plenty of value in the player prop market with 11 games on the schedule.
Let's dive into our three favorite player props fo Monday, April 18.
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MLB props for April 18
Picks made on 4/18/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Joc jammed
Outfielder Joc Pederson is off to a scorching start to his San Francisco Giants tenure, hitting .364 with two home runs over his first seven games with the club. He has three multi-hit games in his last four. It's part of the small sample size Olympics of the early part of the MLB season.
Pederson certainly has power in his bat, as evidenced by the 36 homers he hit back in 2019, but he's never been one to hit for a high batting average. His career mark is .233 and he hit just .238 in 137 games a year ago between stints with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves.
He's been stationed in the cleanup spot of San Francisco's lineup and should remain there for Monday's matchup against the New York Mets. He'll face right-hander Tylor Megill, who is off to his own strong start to the season after not allowing an earned run over 10 1-3 innings in his first two starts.
Pederson hasn't historically seen great success against righties (.238 batting average in 2,524 plate appearances) so relying on the matchup advantage could be a smokescreen. Plus, the value on him going hitless — something he has done often throughout his career — is sky-high at +140.
The powerful lefty has also seen a vaunted .429 BABIP, suggesting some of his success is by virtue of good luck and not a newly-found hit tool.
Obviously, there is some risk involved. Despite Pederson's profile as a lefty power bat with a traditionally low batting average, he doesn't feature an absurd amount of swing-and-miss in his approach. He strikes out in less than a quarter of his plate appearances on average, so he could still make regular contact, which always brings chances of a base hit along with it.
Still, the Mets feature a solid — if unspectacular — defense, which should be able to handle him better than the Guardians did.
Pick: Joc Pederson Under 0.5 hits (+140)
Eric Lauer power hour
Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Eric Lauer is not a prototypical strikeout pitcher. He strikes out fewer than a batter per inning for his career and instead relies on inducing soft contact and a vaunted ground ball rate to get batters out.
Despite that, the southpaw is in an excellent position to go over his total strikeouts prop on Monday evening.
He's got a cushy matchup against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that is essentially Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and a bunch of presumably warm bodies.
Lauer went at least five innings in 16 of his 20 starts in 2021 and completed at least six frames on eight occasions. If he can limit the walks against a Pirates lineup that ranks in the middle of the pack with a 9.3 walk percentage, he should be able to go relatively deep in this game.
And for Lauer, it's all about volume since he's not an overpowering pitcher. That said, he featured a little more zip on his four-seamer in his first start of the season, averaging 94.4 mph on the pitch compared to 92.5 a year ago. If he carries that forward with him, that will only add to his chances.
Pick: Eric Lauer Over 5.5 strikeouts (+128)
Kershaw won't be perfect again
Clayton Kershaw could have thrown a perfect game in his first start of the season. He didn't allow a baserunner over his seven perfect innings before skipper Dave Roberts turned to the bullpen. The veteran lefty recorded 13 strikeouts in a thoroughly dominant outing.
As such, oddsmakers have him heavily favored to eclipse his strikeouts total tonight at -150 to the Over on 6.5. We're going in the opposite direction.
First, the team he dismantled was the Minnesota Twins, who own the highest strikeout rate in the majors at 29.2% in this young season.
Second, his opponents tonight are the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta batters have gone down on strikes in 23.7% of their plate appearances (13th in MLB), but that number shrinks to 19.3% against left-handers.
Plus, Roberts didn't hesitate to pull the plug on Kershaw's attempt at a perfecto. Do you really think he'll extend the leash if he gets in trouble early on against the Braves? Teams are still carrying extra arms until early May when rosters shrink. There's no reason to risk a key player's health on a game in April.
Kershaw also went under Monday's total in 10 of 22 outings in 2021. It's not a lock, but the value is there against one of the NL's better lineups, and it remains difficult to trust starters to go too deep into starts.
Now, some books are offering the Under on 7.5 strikeouts, which is decidedly safer, but you're getting plus money on Under 6.5 at books like FanDuel.
Pick: Under 6.5 strikeouts (+118)
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