Talk about scoring. Five games saw at least 11 total runs scored in yesterday’s MLB action. But fear not fans of pitching and betting Unders: some reinforcements are on the way.
Today, we look at props for two pitchers coming off injuries and presenting us with some value as John Means and the Baltimore Orioles visit the Tampa Bay Rays, while Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres head to Atlanta to take on the Braves.
We break down and pick these games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Tuesday, July 20.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Orioles +0.5 Five-Inning Runline (+110)
Ace John Means returns to the Baltimore Orioles rotation after missing roughly six weeks with left shoulder inflammation, and he’ll get a tough task in his first start back as he’ll take the mound Tuesday at Tropicana Field against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Means was dominating before his injury, pitching to a 2.28 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .181 batting average in his 12 starts this season. While Means has had some mixed results against the Rays in his career, the lefty has the stuff to limit them.
In part, he'll be effective as a southpaw. The Rays rank next-to-last in the MLB when it comes to batting average and OPS against left-handers.
The Rays counter with a lefty of their own in rookie Shane McClanahan. While McClanahan has been pretty effective this season, he has had issues at times with walks, which builds up his pitch count quickly. And while the O’s obviously have had their struggles, they actually rank third in average and eighth in OPS when it comes to facing lefties.
Despite being heavy underdogs, the Orioles have value to keep this one close, at least through five innings.
Yu Darvish Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
San Diego Padres ace Yu Darvish did not pitch in the All-Star game due to some tightness in his hip and back, but he is prepared to take the mound Tuesday when the Friars visit the Atlanta Braves.
Darvish was fantastic in the first half of the season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .211 batting average. He is also punching out 10.7 batters per nine innings and in his last five full starts (he got pulled early with the tightness in his last start) that number bumped up to 11.7.
Darvish now faces a Braves team that has struck out the fourth-most against right-handed pitching this season and then added a swing-happy Joc Pederson to the lineup to help mitigate the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr.
Considering this is a number Darvish went Over four times in five starts (prior to his last outing) and nine times in the last 14, we like the value for him to do it again in this matchup.
Mariners-Rockies Under 6 Five-Inning Total (+100)
Sometimes, when betting on baseball props, you find value in the funniest of places. Like betting Unders in the thin air at Coors Field in Colorado. But that’s exactly what we are doing today as Marco Gonzalez and the Seattle Mariners visit German Marquez and the Colorado Rockies.
Obviously, we get a slightly elevated total in Colorado, but with this pitching matchup, the O/U of 6 through five innings seems a little too high.
Let’s start with Marquez. The Rockies' lone All-Star this season was very deserving of that selection, posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. But maybe more impressive is the fact he has allowed just four earned runs in his last six starts at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Now, he faces a Mariners team that ranks dead last in the MLB in both batting average and OPS.
Countering Marquez is Gonzalez, and it has been a bit of a roller coaster this year for the Mariners ace. He got off to a rough start before a seven-start stretch where he pitched to a 3.62 ERA and limited opponents to a .221 batting average.
Since then, Gonzalez had one good and one bad start and now he faces a Rockies team that ranks 28th in batting average and OPS over its last 21 games when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. With that in mind, we’re betting this one stays below the five-inning total.
MLB betting card for July 20
- Orioles +0.5 Five-Inning Runline (+110)
- Yu Darvish Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
- SEA-COL Under 6 Five-Inning Total (+100)
Picks made on 7/20/2021 at 11:45 a.m. ET
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