With six early games on the MLB betting slate this Saturday it's important to place your player prop bets early before the best value is off the board.
Today, I'm backing the hottest hitter in the AL and the best hitter in the NL, in a pair of afternoon showdowns, while putting my money on a strikeout specialist in a later game in Atlanta.
Here are my best free MLB prop bets for September 17.
MLB props for September 17
Picks made on 9/17/2022 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Goldy lock
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals face off in a doubleheader today. In the first matchup, Mike Minor will pitch for the Reds, as he tries to bounce back from an ugly start on Monday where he surrendered three homers in five innings versus the Pirates.
Minor has struggled all season, pitching to a 5.78 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP and an OBA of .294 in 18 starts. He'll have a very tough time against NL MVP favorite Paul Goldschmidt who is second in the majors in total bases (311) while ranking third in slugging percentage (.606).
Despite Busch Stadium typically favoring pitchers, Goldy is slashing .354/.446/.677 at home this season. The four-time Silver Slugger winner also tees off on southpaws like Minor, boasting an incredible .854 slugging percentage versus lefties.
It's little surprise that Goldschmidt has a history of mashing against Minor, going 9-for-15 with three homers and a double against the Reds left-hander. Take him to go Over his total bases prop in Game 1 against Minor.
Paul Goldschmidt Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings)
Bo bash
Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette is one of the hottest hitters in baseball and is slashing .471/.500/.941 in 16 games in September. Today, Bichette and the Blue Jays are hosting the Orioles, who will send rookie Kyle Bradish to the mound.
Bradish has a 5.01 ERA in 19 starts this year and ranks in the bottom 15th percentile of pitchers in hard-hit rate. He was also shredded in a pair of starts at Rogers Centre, allowing 15 hits and eight earned runs in nine innings.
Bichette has gone 4-for-9 at the plate with a pair of home runs against Bradish and the Orioles pitcher has struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing them to slug .517. Rogers Centre also tends to skew towards being a hitter-friendly ballpark, with outfielders having a tough time on the unpredictable artificial surface.
With Bichette racking up at least two total bases in 12 of 16 contests this month, take the Over 1.5 on his total bases today.
Bo Bichette Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Truist to form
Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies face off against the Braves at Truist Park tonight. Nola is putting together another sensational season and is fourth in the majors in FIP (2.70) while ranking first in strikeout to walk ratio (8.4), third in strike percentage (69.2%), and sixth in strikeout rate (28.6%).
In his last start, Nola logged just two innings before a rain delay sent him to the bench early. However, in 11 of his previous 14 starts, he had at least seven strikeouts, which makes the Over 6.5 on his strikeouts total today extremely tempting.
The Braves have one of the most dangerous lineups in the majors but those power hitters also strike out a lot and they rank 28th in the majors in strikeout rate. Nola has already faced off against Atlanta three times this season and racked up at least seven punchouts in each outing, including a 10-strikeout performance in May.
Aaron Nola Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-121)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $63.06 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
