It’s officially the home stretch as teams play through the final full month of the MLB season — and with postseason races heating up — there is plenty of baseball betting value to be found in the player prop market.
Today, we look at the Houston Astros, who have been a thorn in the side of All-Star Martin Perez of late. Meanwhile, Mariners' starter Marco Gonzales has a tough matchup against the White Sox. And can Mike Trout keep crushing lefties when he digs in against Tyler Alexander and the Tigers?
Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Monday, September 5.
MLB props for September 5
Picks made on 9/5/2022 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Marco GONEzales
The Seattle Mariners are closing in on their first postseason berth since 2001, and a big reason for that has been starting pitching. I’m just not sure if Marco Gonzales can be attributed to the success created by the likes of Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert.
Either way, the left-hander will take the ball for the M’s tonight when they open a series with the visiting Chicago White Sox.
Gonzales has pitched to an expected ERA of 4.82 while surrendering a .274 expected batting average to opponents this season. Now, 2022 has been basically an unmitigated disaster for the White Sox. They have a talented, if not a more talented roster than everyone else in the American League Central. But one thing they still do well is hit off left-handers.
Chicago ranks second in batting average, sixth in OPS, and third in wRC+ when digging in against southpaws this season.
Additionally, despite his struggles, the Mariners tend to let Gonzales work deep into games, averaging 5.64 innings per start this season. And with him surrendering six or more hits in nine of his last 11 starts there is value, even at this juice, for Gonzales to go Over his hits allowed prop vs. this White Sox lineup.
Marco Gonzales Prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-141)
Perez gets pumped
There is no denying that Martin Perez has been having an outstanding season for the Texas Rangers, but if there has been a blemish on his season lately, it has been thanks to the Houston Astros.
Perez took the ball twice against the Astros in August and the results definitely left something to be desired. Houston knocked around Perez for 12 runs on 15 hits while striking out seven over just 10 innings of work.
The Astros also did a great job of being patient against Perez, working him for seven walks and quickly building up that pitch count. Don’t be surprised if it is more of the same in Monday night’s matchup.
Jose Altuve has always been a thorn in the side of Perez, getting to him for a .302 average. On top of that, Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker have all been on fire at the plate over the 30 days. The team as a whole ranks sixth in wRC+ since the start of August.
That patience at the plate and the success against Perez means it should be another short outing tonight for the Rangers’ southpaw. And with each of his last two starts against the Astros lasting only five innings, it’s hard not to like Perez to land Under his outs recorded prop of 17.5 once again tonight.
Martin Perez Prop: Under 7.5 outs recorded (-110 at DraftKings)
Staying in character
Ah, the three certainties in life. Death, taxes, and the Los Angeles Angels not living up to expectations. It is another wasted season in Anaheim and we are once again left to wonder what it would be like to watch Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani play a postseason game together.
For now, we’ll have to settle with Trout cashing for us on a total bases prop when the Angels host the Detroit Tigers tonight.
Trout has found another one of his patented grooves. The former MVP has recorded a hit in 10 of his last 13 games, hitting .295 with a .965 OPS and five homers. So, you know, normal Mike Trout stuff.
Tonight, he’ll dig in against Tigers’ starter Tyler Alexander. The left-hander owns a 5.22 expected ERA while giving up a .283 expected batting average to opponents. And while the Angels in general struggled against lefties, don’t lump Trout in with them. Trout owns a .313 average with a 1.002 OPS when facing southpaws this season.
Bet on Trout to have another solid day at the dish, and back him to go Over 1.5 total bases for the ninth time over his last 14 games.
Mike Trout Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-120)
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