Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Dodgers Dominate Snell

Blake Snell is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, but we're fading him in this regard in one of our three favorite player prop picks on the day. Beyond him, we've got a pair of other pitcher props we like, so read on!

Jason Wilson - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Jason Wilson • Publishing Editor
Sep 13, 2023 • 11:30 ET • 4 min read
Blake Snell San Diego Padres MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Happy Wednesday, and welcome to our favorite MLB props for September 13.

Today, we're zeroing in on a late-night West Coast clash for two of our selections, while also grabbing one of the earlier games on the slate. It's a trio of pitcher props and MLB odds are moving, so get in on them quickly.

Read on for our favorite MLB picks and predictions below.

MLB props for September 13

  • Snell Under 7.5 Ks
  • Pepiot Over 14.5 outs
  • Harrison Under 5.5 Ks

Picks made on September 13 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Best MLB bets today

Prop bet #1: A fishy Snell

The best time to have grabbed this prop was likely first thing this morning as Blake Snell odds have shifted significantly on the Under 7.5 strikeouts. Most books are offering lines as short as -160. However, at the time of this writing, FanDuel is still offering a longer number at -125 and BetMGM isn't far off that at -130, which simply underlines why it's important to shop around.

Snell is one of baseball's preeminent strikeout pitchers, punching out close to 12 batters per nine innings or 31.1% of opposing hitters, both marks ranking within the Top 5 of all qualified starters. The issue is he allows more walks than everyone, limiting just how deep he can go into games. And while he's surpassed tonight's total in four straight, the Los Angeles Dodgers offer a trickier opponent.

The Dodgers own a 21.5% strikeout rate on the season (ninth-lowest in MLB) and could be inclined to sit lefty hitters like James Outman and Max Muncy — both of whom strike out more than a quarter of the time — to maintain the handedness advantage.

The Dodgers also own the highest walk rate in baseball at 10.6%, which could be the biggest thorn in Snell's side tonight.

Blake Snell prop: Under 7.5 strikeouts (-125 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: A Pepiot in his stepiot

Sticking with the nightcap, let's grab Dodgers right-hander Ryan Pepiot to go Over 14.5 outs. The juice is heavy at -167 but it's worth it. He just needs to clear five innings, something he's done in three of his four starts this season.

While Pepiot was a strikeout pitcher in the minors and his initial MLB stint in 2022, he also issued a lot of walks. He's trimmed both his strikeout and walk rates in 2023 at both levels of competition, allowing for a more efficient hurler to take the mound. And while the San Diego Padres draw walks at almost an identical clip to the Dodgers, it won't much matter if Pepiot continues to pound the zone.

This number will almost certainly jump to 15.5, which is much less likely to hit as the Dodgers will look to preserve the 26-year-old's arm with all the absences that have hit the pitching staff of late, particularly in the rotation. As long as it doesn't cross that threshold, Pepiot's Over is the play. 

Ryan Pepiot prop: Over 14.5 outs recorded (-167)

Prop bet #3: Rook gets the hook

San Francisco Giants rookie Kyle Harrison has plenty of promise. Across 20 starts at Triple-A this season, he amassed a 14.39 K/9 and has only seen that dip to 11.51 at the MLB level.

So far, the southpaw has limited his walks relative to his minor-league production, not issuing more than two in any of his four starts. The problem is he hasn't been given too long of a leash to date and has been absolutely pummeled by the home run ball in his last two starts. Granted, he allowed only one dinger to the Rockies, but he served up four to the Padres two starts back.

It will be a different sort of punishment awaiting him this afternoon as the Cleveland Guardians don't hit for much power and don't draw a ton of walks.

What they do is make contact. A lot of contact. The Guardians are tied with the Nationals for the lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 18.8%. The Giants are in the thick of the NL Wil Card race and will not hesitate to jump to the bullpen at the earliest sign of trouble, especially if Harrison's suspect command comes back to bite him.

This is another prop that might require some shopping around, because it will not remain a plus-money play for long.

Kyle Harrison prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+108)

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Jason Wilson Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Jason Wilson is an experienced journalist who has worked in a variety of roles within the industry for the past 18 years. Working at community newspapers in New Brunswick, Jason wore many hats as a reporter, editor, and photographer, covering everything from sports to courts to municipal politics. After shifting gears and working as an educator for a few years in the 2010s, Jason returned to full-time work in media as an MLB news editor for six years at theScore in Toronto before joining Covers in late 2021.

He has honed his editorial acumen over his years in the industry, showcasing flexibility, patience, and a strong work ethic. While he was relatively new to sports betting upon joining Covers, Jason has taken the plunge with gusto to learn the ins and outs of the industry, both as a method to improve professionally and to add an extra angle to his sports fandom.

In addition to sports, Jason is an avid film nut and former movie critic who monitors the Academy Awards betting odds for Covers. Jason holds a Bachelor of Arts in journalism degree and a Bachelor of Education degree from St. Thomas University.

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