Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Sublime Hitting Conditions at GABP

Prop bet #1: Wheelin n' Dealin

At least from a strikeout perspective, Zack Wheeler has had some solid historical success against the Atlanta Braves. This prop is closer to a coin flip, so getting anywhere at plus money is a definite take. 

Wheeler has exceeded this number in four of his six last starts against the Atlanta Braves. That includes a 12-strikeout performance against Atlanta earlier this season. His last start against them did come just a week ago, and he did have just four strikeouts. However, the data suggests it's more of a floor performance than expected.

Atlanta remains a strikeout-prone team, as they have for the last few years. It still swings at the fifth-highest rate in baseball and chases pitches at the eighth-highest rate in the league.

This number is a little short, especially at plus money. Wheeler can have significant variance in his strikeout totals, but he'll be up for this one. This is an important series for the Phillies. It's the most difficult one remaining on the schedule, and Philly is still in a playoff chase. Meanwhile, the Braves are just looking to stay healthy and avoid rust as they wrapped up the NL East last week. 

Zack Wheeler prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Life in the Hamptons

Garrett Hampson is coming into this one off a decent streak of play, except his most recent game. I'll explain. Over the weekend, he posted three hits in two games. Hampson has yet to go back-to-back games without a hit in over a month, and he'll come into this one off a 0-4 appearance. That piqued my interest and is why I ultimately grabbed this. However, the matchup is one to like as well. 

Jose Butto steps on the mound for the New York Mets. The 25-year-old's second year in the league has been around average. He's allowed an ERA of just over 4 in a small segment of games started, and he's not missed a ton of bats with a whiff rate in the bottom 20% of baseball. Butto is also a heavy fastball-throwing pitcher, and that works to the advantage of Hampson.

He'll enter this game as the Marlins season leading hitter against the four-seam fastball with an impressive .372 batting average. In addition to that, he's posted the third-highest slugging percentage in the league. I'm backing Hampson, getting two looks against Butto. If that happens, I'll gladly take my chances at the price of -120. 

Garrett Hampson prop: Over 0.5 hits (-120 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Captain Canada

MLB weather conditions in Great American Ballpark tonight will be the ripest for the long ball than any stadium in baseball. Part of that is because it's Great American Ballpark, but in addition to that, it'll be pretty warm with winds blowing out. I'm grabbing a veteran to deliver a critical game for the Cincinnati Reds.

Joe Ryan takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight, and he's had a terrific season. He's gone in and out of the Cy Young conversation all year and has posted a 3.34 expected ERA. Recently, though, he hasn't been nearly as good, a large part of that is because of his hard-hit issues. Ryan ranks in the bottom 30% of qualified pitchers and is below average in barrel rate. He's given up a home run in three of his last four starts, including when he was blasted against the St Louis Cardinals last week. That signals that he will likely survive a start in one of baseball's most friendly hitting parks with at least one long ball. What better hitter to take advantage of that than Votto?

Votto is going to see a lot of the fastball tonight. Ryan throws over 50% of the time and has thrown it even more lately. There is no-hitter on the Reds team that hits the fastball harder than Votto. He has a hard-hit rate against it of 65%. I'm backing the player who hits the pitch the hardest and will be thrown the most to do damage. I priced this at +320, which means I see a considerable value in this number. 

Joey Votto prop: To hit a home run (+360 at bet365)