Rangers vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bats Keep Rolling in Rivalry Series

Two of the best teams in baseball square off in a tantalizing matchup Tuesday night in the Lone Star State.

The Houston Astros held on for a narrow 10-9 victory in a wild Game 1 against the visiting Texas Rangers. After that walkoff thriller, both teams prepare for an encore on Tuesday.

While it may not quite live up to yesterday’s thriller, there are reasons to expect runs in Game 2 as well. 

Find out why in my MLB betting picks for Rangers vs. Astros below. 

Rangers vs Astros odds

Rangers vs Astros predictions

For Game 2’s best bet, we’ll be taking a closer look at the Texas Rangers’ matchup at the plate.

J.P. France is getting the nod for the Houston Astros and while the rookie right-hander’s surface-level numbers have been terrific (he’s posted a 1.80 ERA across his last five starts), a closer examination of his profile reveals a few concerns.

The underlying metrics aren’t quite buying the 28-year-old right-hander’s performance — his 4.25 xERA, 4.42 FIP, and 4.55 xFIP are all a full run or more above his actual ERA (3.13). The soft-tosser averages 93.2 mph on his fastball (16th percentile) but attempts to counteract that by generating a ton of spin (94th percentile). 

There are a fair amount of other concerning numbers in his profile, including but not limited to his ranking in the 30th percentile in xBA, the 33rd percentile in xSLG, and the 32nd percentile in Whiff%. He averages just 6.37 strikeouts per nine innings while posting a low 9.5% swinging strike rate. 

If you’re going to pitch to contact, then you’d better be darn good at limiting hard contact. France is merely OK at that, ranking in the 56th percentile in average exit velocity, 64th percentile in hard hit percentage, and in the 45th percentile in barrel rate. 

The Rangers have been mashing at the plate against right-handed pitching, posting a 136 wRC+ and .367 wOBA across their last 10 games. That’s been a continuation of the success they’ve seen all season — Bochy’s squad ranks first in wRC+ (119) and second in wOBA (.342) against righties on the year.

Targeting Texas’ team total has been a profitable endeavor in 2023 considering they've gone Over their team total in 55 of their last 93 games. I see little reason to expect that to slow down now considering how well they hit right-handers.

They’re coming off a strong offensive showing in which they plated nine runs on Monday and have now scored 21 runs in their last two meetings with Houston. 

Some books are offering Texas’ team total at 3.5 with the Over juiced up to as high as -145. I prefer to lay less juice and therefore will target the Over 4 at -104.

My best bet: Rangers team total Over 4 (-104 at FanDuel)

Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay

Rangers TT Over 4.5 (+115)

Astros TT Over 3.5 (-200)

Over 9.5 (+115)

Jonah Heim to record 2+ total bases (+150)

+525 at BetMGM

This SGP will be a four-legger centered around my best bet on the Rangers’ team total. I also think the Astros can do some damage at the plate.

This will be a bullpen game for Texas, which is very concerning news as the Rangers have struggled mightily out of the pen all year and face a capable Astros lineup. Therefore, I’ll add Astros team total Over 3.5 and the full-game Over 9.5 as the second and third legs, respectively. 

The fourth and final leg featured Rangers’ catcher Jonah Heim notching 2+ total bases. He’s been on fire at the dish this season, posting a .814 OPS and 70 RBI as one of 2023’s breakout stars.

If the Rangers are going to score runs in this spot as expected, it’s likely that Heim is involved in dishing out the damage. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Houston opened as the favorite, sitting between -135 and -154 depending on the book. The best comeback available on Texas is +133. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure that you get the best price.

The total opened up at 9 across the board with most books slightly juicing the Under. 

Since I’m targeting Texas’ team total Over, I have a preference for their moneyline and the full-game Over. 

Left-hander Cody Bradford is likely to see the bulk of the innings for the Rangers after opener Yerry Rodriguez. Bradford has lasted as long as five innings in one of his five previous starts this season (in 10 appearances) and has a 4.28 xERA and 4.75 FIP.

Texas has had bullpen struggles all year, and the addition of Aroldis Chapman hasn’t been the cure-all the front office may have hoped for. They’re now up to an ugly 4.80 ERA in relief this season. 

Houston’s lineup has managed to stay afloat despite stars Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve both finding themselves on the shelf with oblique injuries.

The Astros have still been in fine form at the plate, posting a 117 wRC+ and .338 wOBA across the last 10 days. Both of those numbers rank inside the Top 10 of the league during that stretch, which is remarkable considering how shorthanded they have been. 

Trend to know

The Rangers are 55-38 O/U to their team total in the last 93 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros

Rangers vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Cody Bradford (2-1, 4.78 ERA): Bruce Bochy is opting to give his starters a little rest, so Nathan Eovaldi’s turn in the rotation is being skipped. That means Tuesday will be a bullpen game in which reliever Yerry Rodriguez (5.06 ERA, 3.57 xERA, 3.28) opens up before giving way to Bradford, who has allowed five earned runs across his last 10 innings (four appearances).

J.P. France (5-3, 3.13 ERA): France has been in terrific form, tossing seven quality starts in his last eight outings. The rookie has been a big boost for Dusty Baker’s rotation, although his 4.25 xERA, 4.43 FIP, and 4.55 xFIP all indicate that regression is coming. His 17.1% K-rate is much lower than the 28.3% he posted last season in Triple-A and he ranks in just the fifth percentile in chase rate. 

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