After splitting the first two games of a three-game series, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros head back to Minute Maid Park for Game 3.
Rangers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
After a 25-29 start to the season, the Houston Astros have bounced back at full force over the last two months despite losing All-Star Kyle Tucker to a shin injury in early June.
The ascendance of Alvarez has been impressive with the former AL Rookie of the Year seemingly getting better each season. However, it looked like he might take a step back earlier this year after an inconsistent start. He’s quickly put that thought to rest by absolutely obliterating baseballs since the start of June. He’s racked up 83 total bases over the last two months while averaging 2.5 per game with 20 extra-base hits, including 10 dingers.
He also somehow just keeps getting better each month with a slash line of .355/.512/.710 in July. That doesn’t bode well for Max Scherzer, who’s making just his fifth start of the season and has gotten worse with each outing.
After a scoreless debut this year in which he gave up just one hit, Scherzer has allowed 18 in his last three starts, including four home runs. The last time he was on the mound, the Angels hammered him with two dingers and eight hits... and Houston is a lot better than that particular L.A. team.
Alvarez should have an especially strong afternoon because Scherzer is relying so heavily on his four-seamer (44.5%). That’s a pitch Alvarez is batting .312 against with a .495 SLG — and 25 of his 41 extra-base hits this season have come against fastballs.
With four other pitches in Scherzer’s arsenal, Alvarez is hitting better than .300 against two of them and has an xSLG of .582-plus against three of them. It’ll be hard for Scherzer to end his streak of giving up moonshots with Alvarez at the plate.
Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases
Jose Altuve Over 0.5 hits
Corey Seager Over 0.5 hits
It hasn’t just been the Alvarez show with Tucker out. Altuve has been ageless and is batting .331 since the beginning of June. Over that period, he’s averaging 1.4 hits per game and he’s managed at least one hit in 27 of 35 games, including 10 of his last 11.
He isn’t the only infielder with a laundry list of accolades who should come away with a hit in this one though. Corey Seager has been playing his best baseball of the year in July with a slash line of .359/.432/.718, and he's positioned to come away with a hit for the 17th time in 18 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Astros odds
Rangers vs Astros live odds
Rangers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-200) | Houston -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Texas +110 | Houston -130
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Rangers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Even with the Astros coming off a 2-1 loss in extra innings to the Rangers, Houston opened as a -125 moneyline favorite with most books now hovering around -130.
- The Astros are 50-45 this season and sit second in the AL West with the Rangers trailing them by five games in the division at 45-50.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 8.5 with most books coming down to 8, but a few are offering 8.5 with the Over at plus-money odds.
- These are two of the worst Over teams in baseball with both sitting at just 38-53-4 when betting the Over.
Rangers vs Astros trend
The Astros have cashed the moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+12.75 units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros
Rangers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Southwest, Space City Network |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (9-3, 2.53 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Max Scherzer (1-2, 3.09 ERA) |
Rangers vs Astros latest injuries
Rangers vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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