The Seattle Mariners are in the midst of a solid 6-4 run. They’ll turn to ace Logan Gilbert on Saturday night as they look to grab another win against an inner division foe and inch closer toward the AL West-leading Houston Astros.
My Rangers vs. Mariners predictions see Gilbert continuing his home success against a Corey Seager-less Texas team.
Rangers vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Logan Gilbert Under 4.5 hits allowed (+110 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Logan Gilbert has done a remarkable job of limiting hits all season long. The Seattle Mariners right-hander has been especially effective on home soil, where he’s allowed four hits or fewer in 10 of 13 starts.
I expect the good times to continue against the Texas Rangers. They have dropped three of the past four games and seen their slim playoff hopes evaporate to (almost) none. FanGraphs gives them only a 0.1% chance of making it to the dance.
The Rangers have scored only 13 runs over the last four games (3.25 per game) and are clearly finding it difficult to muster up consistent offense without superstar Corey Seager. That’s probably not going to change — particularly now that their playoff hopes are gone and the team is playing for nothing.
Gilbert has enjoyed consistent success against this Rangers lineup. Dating back to last season, he’s allowed three hits or fewer in four of five head-to-head meetings and all three on home soil.
Over a combined average of 16 plate appearances each, Marcus Semien, Josh Smith, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, and Leody Tavares have all hit .200 or worse against Gilbert in their careers. They know what Gilbert is about and have still struggled mightily to dish out any sort of damage.
Gilbert is sporting an impressive .259 xwOBA over the past month and has struck out more than 34% of opposing batters in that span. The M's ace is pitching very well and I don’t see that changing against a Rangers team that's missing its best hitter and lacking motivation.
Rangers vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Gilbert Under 4.5 hits allowed
Logan Gilbert Under 1.5 walks allowed
Luke Raley Over 0.5 hits
We’re going to double-dip with Gilbert and also back him to limit walks against Texas, as the right-hander has walked fewer than two batters in 76% of his starts this season, and 85% of the time when playing on home soil. His control is incredible; he hammers the strike zone and wastes very few pitches.
Luke Raley is a priority target for me due to his attractive -125 price tag for a hit, especially in a matchup where the splits heavily favor him. Meanwhile,
Conversely, Raley is terrible vs. left-handed pitchers (.171 BA) but quite good against righties like Scherzer (.257).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Mariners odds
Rangers vs Mariners live odds
Rangers vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +120 | Seattle -130
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-190) | Seattle -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-118) | Under 6.5 (+105)
Rangers vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline has soared for those hoping to jump on the Mariners. They opened as -135 favorites and are now being priced at -155 on Pinnacle.
- As good as the pitching matchup is, we’ve seen some movement towards the Over on a very low total of 6.5. The O/U opened at -118 at Pinnacle and now sits at -101.
Rangers vs Mariners trend
Gilbert has allowed four hits or fewer in four straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners.
Rangers vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, RSNW |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Max Scherzer (2-4, 3.89 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (7-11, 3.15 ERA) |
Rangers vs Mariners latest injuries
Rangers vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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