We have the fifth and final game of this AL East intradivisional series with the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. This is the 15th meeting between these two clubs this season with each team winning seven of the first 14 matchups.
In a massive game in terms of the Wild Card race, which team will come out victorious? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs Blue Jays on Thursday, September 15.
Rays vs Blue Jays best odds
Rays vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Right-hander Kevin Gausman is taking the mound for the Blue Jays in this contest and is an excellent candidate to back in the strikeout department. Recording at least six strikeouts in each of his last five starts, he should be able to keep it going against the Rays.
Through 27 starts this season, Gausman is 12-9 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. We should not expect any regression from him, as he boasts a .291 xwOBA, .247 xBA, and .390 xSLG this year.
This strong pitching should continue against Tampa Bay, a team that Gausman has dominated this season. Over his three appearances against the Rays, he’s 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.76 WHIP while averaging seven strikeouts per outing.
In fact, Gausman has recorded at least six strikeouts in nine of his last 12 starts against Tampa Bay (75%). Through 70 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Rays roster possesses a troubling 32.9 strikeout percentage.
Looking at the projected starting lineup for Tampa Bay today, there are plenty of strikeout candidates as five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 21%. This contest is Toronto’s fifth game in four days, so a fatigued bullpen may force Gausman to stay on the mound as long as possible, which is great for our strikeout prop.
My best bet: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-132 at FanDuel)
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Rays vs Blue Jays betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
This is a tough game to gauge because of the uncertainty regarding Tampa Bay’s starting pitcher, left-hander Shane McClanahan. The AL Cy Young candidate may be on a pitch count as this is his first start back from his shoulder injury.
McClanahan threw a 50-pitch simulated game last Friday, so theoretically he should be good to go by now. But this brings up an interesting dilemma for the Rays.
In a big game, do they force their best pitcher to go as long as possible to improve their likelihood of winning? Or do they protect him as much as possible considering they currently hold the last Wild Card spot in the AL with a few weeks left in the season?
Because of these uncertainties, I’m staying away from picking a side in this game.
Over/Under analysis
As you can probably guess by now, I would lean towards taking the Under in this game. Both pitchers are excellent, but we just do not know how deep McClanahan is going to go.
That being said, both bullpens are among the league’s best. Since August 1, each relief staff ranks in the Top 10 in the league in ERA, WHIP, BA, and wOBA.
But, like I stated earlier, this is the fifth game in four days for these two clubs, so both bullpens may be fatigued. Additionally, these are two teams that hit the ball well.
Since the beginning of August, each squad ranks in the top half of the league in BA, OPS, and wOBA. I lean towards the Under in a McClanahan/Gausman duel, but there are too many concerns in pulling the trigger.
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, September 15, 2022
• First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun, Sportsnet
Starting pitchers
Shane McClanahan (11-5, 2.20 ERA): Making his return from a shoulder injury, left-hander McClanahan will look to pick up right where he left off. Not only is he a Cy Young candidate in the American League, but he was in particularly great form before his injury on August 30.
In the three prior starts, he went 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Boasting a traditional four-pitch arsenal, he routinely pumps his 4-seam fastball to set up any of his three breaking pitches.
Kevin Gausman (12-9, 3.31 ERA): Making his 28th start of the season for Toronto, right-hander Gausman will look to continue to impress his new club. He has been strong from beginning to now this season, a trend I expect to continue in this matchup.
Boasting a four-pitch arsenal, Gausman typically relies on his 4-seam fastball and split-finger. The split-finger is one of the nastiest pitches in baseball this season, boasting a whiff percentage north of 44%.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
Kevin Gausman has recorded at least six strikeouts in each of his last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays
