Nine games under .500, 10 games out of a postseason spot, and just a week out from the trade deadline, the fire sale feels almost inevitable for the Toronto Blue Jays at this point.
And now, the eternal thorn in the side of Toronto — the Tampa Bay Rays — come to town for three games. However, my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions believe the home side can take an early lead with Jose Berrios on the mound.
Find out more in my MLB picks for this AL East matchup on July 23.
Rays vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays five inning run line -0.5 (+100 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The second half of the season has been more of the same for the Toronto Blue Jays, dropping two of three to the Detroit Tigers in their first series coming out of the All-Star break.
Preventing runs continued to be a problem, but the Jays are hoping Jose Berrios can put a stop to that tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Berrios began the season very strong, pitching to a 2.93 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over his first 14 starts. However, it appears he hit a wall in the latter part of the first half, but a little rest and a matchup with the Rays could get him back on track.
Somewhat surprisingly, Berrios has strong numbers against the Rays. He’s made three starts against them since the start of last season and has given up just four earned runs on 15 hits, striking out 17 over 18 frames. Current Tampa batters have just a .227 xBA and a .296 xSLG vs. Berrios.
The Rays will counter Berrios with Shawn Armstrong, who will be used as an opener in this matchup. The 33-year-old RHP has pitched in 36 games this season (five starts) and has an ugly 5.60 xERA while surrendering a .286 xBA to opponents — both rank in the Bottom 5%.
Tampa will follow Armstrong up with Tyler Alexander who was just recalled from Triple-A. Alexander made the team out of camp but was sent down after sporting a 6.19 ERA and a .828 opponent OPS over 11 games.
And thanks to the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, the Jays have been a respectable lineup over the last month, ranking 12th in batting average, 13th in OPS, and 14th in wRC+.
I like the Jays to get off to a good start tonight, but their disastrous bullpen is shying me away from taking the full-game ML.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
Speaking of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays’ lone All-Star picked up right where he left off before the break.
Vladdy has come out of the break by going 5-for-12 with two dingers and four RBI in the series against the Tigers. He’s now hitting .292 with a .833 OPS, 16 home runs, and 69 RBI for the season, and I like him to drive in another one tonight.
I’m actually a little surprised the Rays are opening the game with Armstrong because Vladdy owns him. Guerrero is a ridiculous 8-for-11 (.727) in his career against him. Now, he’s just 2-for-14 against Alexander, but those two hits are a double and a dinger, and his xBA and xSLG of .347 and .639 tell you he’s been hitting Alexander hard.
Vladdy has at least one RBI in five of his last seven games overall, and at this price, our MLB prop projections have Over 0.5 RBI as a five-star play.
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Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Rays vs Blue Jays live odds
Rays vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-125) | Toronto -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +135 | Toronto -160
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Rays vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as -160 home favorites, but they have been faded down to the -140 range.
- The Rays have taken four of the seven games agianst the Blue Jays this season but lost the previous matchup against Jose Berrios 8-2.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon.
- The Jays turned into an Over team in the latter part of the first half thanks to the bats starting to come around and the bullpen being an unmitigated disaster. The Over is 4-3 in this matchup this season.
Rays vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the game total Over in 28 of their last 45 games for +12.60 Units and a 25% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Sportsnet |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Shawn Armstrong (2-2, 5.91 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (8-7, 4.01 ERA) |
Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Rays vs Blue Jays weather
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