Rays vs Guardians AL Wild Card Game 2 Picks and Predictions: Franco Comes Through for Tampa Bay

It's Game Two of the American League Wild Card as the Cleveland Guardians face off against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Cleveland took the first game in a closely fought contest, 2-1. All three runs were scored via the long ball, from Jose Siri and Jose Ramirez. The difference in the game ultimately ended up being that the Guardians' home run came with someone on base, and the Rays' home run didn't. A fitting way to start a series where the teams are separated by the thinnest of margins. 

Will the series end on Saturday? Find out with our MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Rays. 

Rays vs Guardians best odds

Rays vs Guardians picks and predictions

I rated the Tampa Bay Rays as the poorest offense in the postseason, but here they get a matchup against a very hot/cold pitcher for the Guardians. One that can be dominant but one that can absolutely be dominated. This elimination game will have an undeniable sense of urgency for the Rays. Finding a way to avoid a sweep is pretty ingrained in their culture, along with finding just enough offense to win those games. 

With the Rays being desperate for offense and a knack for coming up in the clutch, we're going to target a hitter that we believe has the best matchup: Wander Franco. He has the best line-drive rate on this team, which has been an issue for Triston McKenzie, but that's just a small start as to why we like him in this matchup.

Franco is a fastball hitter, and McKenzie throws a lot of them. Franco hit .326 against them on the year with a slugging percentage of .505 and a hard-hit rate of 41.3%. All of these metrics match up in a positive way against McKenzie. However, he has problems with the hard-hit ball and exit velocity. Franco has hit two of the five hardest-hit balls of the Rays' season on fastballs. It's a natural strength vs. weakness.

Putting tons of stock into batters' career numbers against particular pitchers isn't something I'll frequently do. However, we have some recent data on this matchup, and because of that, I think it's relevant. 

Franco last saw McKenzie about two weeks ago. And he went 0-2 against him, putting both balls in play. You may look at that and say, why would that lead me to back him here? Well, that's because Franco's numbers, on the season, make a jump when seeing a pitcher for the second time. 

Yes, Franco went 0-2 in his first appearance against him, but his batting average and slugging percentage both make 10%+ jumps the second time around. So, the raw probability of him getting at least a hit here is something that is statistically in our favor. 

My projections have Franco getting Over 1.5 bases around 60% of the time. That's a nice edge, especially after factoring in the handicap. So, I'll jump on it. 

My best bet: Wander Franco Over 1.5 total bases (+155 at DraftKings)

Rays vs Guardians moneyline analysis

Plus money can be found on the Rays to win, and I have to take some of that. It's not a strong play or something I'll go crazy with, but it has value. My projections are pricing the Rays as the favorite at -110, so I can't pass them up. 

Putting away some stats and looking at the situation makes the Rays feel like the right play. It's a team with much more postseason pedigree than its opponent and a team that seemingly always finds a way to make the right play. The stats agree with that assessment as well. 

Just as McKenzie has had consecutive starts without allowing a run, he's had multiple games of allowing big numbers in short outings. He's hot and cold. 

Conversely, even though he won't go deep, because he's still working his way back from injury, I trust what I'm getting from Tyler Glasnow more than I'm getting from McKenzie. The most telling stat for who he is as a pitcher is a fastball that has produced a run value of -17 but a slider that has produced one of +12. 

Again, he's hot and cold, and that's not necessarily something you want in the postseason. 

Once Glasnow departs from the game, you'll see a much more hands-on approach from the Rays because of the series deficit. The WHIP of these two bullpens sits around 1.13, and I'd make them virtually even. However, the Rays will use some of their best arms out of necessity, and the Guardians may hold on to some of those arms for the third game. That gives Tampa an edge.

Tampa has a pitching edge here because of who is starting and the situation. So, back them to get this to a third and decisive game. 

Rays vs Guardians Over/Under analysis

There's not much reason to think about backing the Over here. If I'm on a side, it's the Under.

Cleveland is starting a pitcher that may be the most run-friendly of its options, but Tampa remains a poor offense. I don't see many situations where it scores more than three runs. Conversely, I'm a massive fan of what Glasnow can do behind the mound. He has elite velocity but what's more relevant to this matchup is he doesn't rely on strikeouts to collect outs. It's just pure velocity that does it for him, and Cleveland's slash numbers drop off against elite velocity.

The trends in this one are squarely toward the Under. Here are a few notable ones:

• The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two in Cleveland.
• The Under is 5-1 in the Guardians' last six games between the AL East.
• Both-day playoff games have gone Under so far in these playoffs.

I'm not seeing value in this number, but sometimes it's as simple as saying, "it's a Wild Card elimination game, I'm playing the Under."

Rays vs Guardians trend to know

The Rays are 9-4 in their last 13 meetings in Cleveland. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Guardians

Rays vs Guardians game info

Starting pitchers

Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.97 ERA): McKenzie was up and down through 2022. He does a terrific job of creating swings and misses and not giving up the free base. However, he has issues with the hard-hit ball, with an average exit velocity ranking in the bottom 10% of baseball. 

Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 1.35 ERA): Glasnow has elite fastball velocity, and the four-seamer makes up over 50% of his pitches. The other pitches making up his arsenal are a strong slider and a curveball with a 53-degree drop. One of his two appearances this year came vs. the Guardians, where he surrendered one earned run on a solo shot in his three innings of work.

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