A pair of division leaders face off in Arlington on Tuesday night with the Texas Rangers hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. This is the second contest of a three-game series at Globe Life Park, and the Rangers took the opener last night for their fourth win in a row since the All-Star break.
MLB betting lines opened with the Rangers as -135 home favorites for today's showdown with the Over/Under at 8.5. Here are my best free Rays vs. Rangers MLB picks and predictions for July 18.
Rays vs Rangers odds
Rays vs Rangers predictions
Struggling rookie Taj Bradley will be toeing the rubber for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. The 22-year-old was sent down to the minors in April and despite getting rocked at Triple-A Durham (surrendering 21 runs in 16 innings), he was recalled after injuries decimated Tampa Bay's rotation.
In 10 starts since slotting back into the rotation, Bradley has a 6.07 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and an OBA of .286.
Bradley ranks in the Bottom 12th percentile in hard-hit rate and exit velocity, which is bad news against a Texas Rangers lineup that is fourth in the majors in hard hit rate while ranking third in average exit velocity.
This is a Texas order that has really taken off this season and leads the majors with a .274 batting average. Corey Seager has been one of the best hitters in the majors, with Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, and Marcus Semien providing plenty of power.
The Rangers are also leading the majors in scoring with 5.83 runs per game, with that number ticking up to 6.27 at home. Take the Over 4.5 on their team total tonight.
My best bet: Rangers Team Total Over 4.5 (-115 at bet365)
Rays vs Rangers same-game parlay
Rangers Team Total Over 4.5
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases
Nathan Eovaldi Over 16.5 outs
Seager went hitless last night but he's still red-hot and is slashing .367/.433/.646 since the start of June. The four-time All-Star has an incredible .669 slugging percentage against right-handers like Bradley, and he slugs .681 at home.
Nathan Eovaldi has been a workhorse for the Rangers, logging at least 18 outs in 12 of his last 15 starts. He's averaging 19.7 outs per game during that span and with the Rangers bullpen looking shaky, Bruce Bochy will want to keep him in as long as possible against a Rays lineup that has struggled over the last month.
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Rays vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Rangers installed as -135 favorites and has seen minimal movement. As of noon ET, the Rangers are available on the moneyline anywhere from -123 to -141, depending on the book.
The total opened at 8.5 and has ticked up to 9, but is now juiced towards the Under at about -120.
The Rangers faced off against Tampa Bay ace Shane McClanahan last night as +113 underdogs but managed to score on a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth to win 3-2.
They have now gone 4-0 since the All-Star break, and their 56-39 record is the second-best mark in the American League. The Rays have the best record in the AL at 60-37, but have gone just 13-18 in their last 31 games.
Although the Rangers are second in the majors in wOBA (.346) and the Rays are third (.337), the two sides have been trending in opposite directions. The Rangers have a wOBA of .358 over the last month, while the Rays have a wOBA of just .301 over that same span.
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Trend to know
The Rangers have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 87 games (+22.00 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Rangers
Rays vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Southwest |
Starting pitchers
Taj Bradley (5-5, 5.43 ERA): The 22-year-old is a tantalizing prospect, but he doesn't look ready for the bigs. Bradley throws his four-seamer with plenty of velocity (averaging 96 mph) but he's been getting hit hard, especially on his secondary pitches. He's been terrible in his last three starts, surrendering 16 runs across 12 1/3 innings.
Nathan Eovaldi (10-3, 2.83 ERA): The 33-year-old is coming off his second All-Star appearance and is putting up career-best numbers in ERA, WHIP (1.02), and OBA (.213). Although some regression is likely for the veteran, his expected ERA of 3.41 indicates that he won't be dropping off too much. He has been struggling with his control in recent games though, walking four batters in each of his last two starts.
