We get treated to an awesome American League East showdown tonight as the 29-9 Tampa Bay Rays open a four-game set against the 21-15 New York Yankees in the Bronx on Thursday night.
The Rays have been the best team in baseball to this point in the season but now they get a tough test as they head to Yankee Stadium to take on a New York squad that is getting healthy and starting to hit like many expected it would.
Game 1 sees Drew Rasmussen toe the rubber against Domingo German. I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in my MLB picks for the Rays vs. Yankees.
Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees predictions
The Tampa Bay Rays' 29-9 record is one of the most impressive starts through 38 games in a MLB season. Their +115 run differential is 33 runs better than the next closest team (the Texas Rangers +82)... they can pitch, and they can hit. Tampa just looks like a complete team.
The Rays also just won a three-game series against this same New York Yankees team in Tampa Bay just last week. Funnily enough, the game they lost was the one started by Drew Rasmussen — and he gets the call again tonight.
Rasmussen was lights out in his first couple of starts of the season but hit a bit of a rough patch which saw him allow 13 runs over a four-game stretch. He then bounced back in his last outing against the Yankees, shutting them out on two hits over 5 2/3 innings just last Saturday.
The right handers' overall numbers are still solid, pitching to a 3.04 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a .230 expected batting average. And while New York has seen a bit of an offensive outburst over the last few games, I’m not sure what can be taken away from a series against the Oakland A’s at this point.
Overall, the Yankees still rank 19th in batting average and 18th in OPS when facing right-handed pitching this season, and current Yanks are hitting just .195 vs. Rasmussen.
Countering Rasmussen is Domingo German. The righty has had an up-and-down start to the season but has allowed just three runs on six hits over his last 13 1/3 innings of work. That includes giving up two runs on four hits in 5 1/3 in his last start against the Rays.
Tampa Bay still ranks first in batting average, OPS, and home runs, but bats have cooled off a bit of late... plating just 3.4 runs per game over the last seven games and hitting just .235 over that span.
I’m expecting a playoff-like atmosphere at Yankee Stadium tonight where the pitchers will have the upper hand, at least early on.
My best bet: Under 4.5 first five innings (-110 at FanDuel)
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Rays vs Yankees moneyline analysis
The Yankees opened this AL East matchup as about +110 home underdogs, but it’s the Bronx Bombers seeing the early action, now priced in the -110 range as of Thursday afternoon. It’s a price that makes sense considering these two teams come into this game pretty evenly matched.
While I said there isn’t much to be taken away from a series against the A’s, it’s not a bad thing that the team is getting healthy and starting to take better swings at the plate. Aaron Judge is back while the likes of DJ LeMahieu and Harrison Bader are starting to give the lineup more depth. So, while they might not be on the same level as the Rays at the moment, their rise combined with Tampa Bay’s slight regression means these two lineups are closer than they were a few weeks ago.
Additionally, both of these teams have strong bullpens. New York ranks first in ERA, sixth in WHIP, and second in opponent batting average, while Tampa Bay ranks third, fourth, and first respectively in those same categories.
I would give a slight edge to the Rays here, particularly at this price point, only because I believe Rasmussen is the better of the two starters and has a history of shutting down this lineup. That said, this feels like a close matchup, so no official play for me here.
Rays vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup has held steady at the opening number of 8.5. Since I’m betting on the first half of this game to be low scoring, I would lean toward the full game Under as well. As noted, both teams have solid starters and have two of the more reliable bullpens in baseball at the moment.
This is also a pitching rematch of a game from last Saturday which finished with a final score of 3-2 in favor of the Yankees. The Under has also cashed in Rasmussen’s only two career starts against New York.
Rays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, May 11, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Drew Rasmussen (3-2, 3.11 ERA): Rasmussen is a right-handed pitcher who uses a mix of five pitches to keep hitters off balance. He uses that mix to create a lot of soft contact and is among the league leaders when it comes to average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
Domingo German (2-2, 4.35 ERA): Another right hander, German is unique because of his curveball use, throwing it nearly 42% of the time. However, he needs to be more consistent with his fastball location if he wants to be effective against this Rays lineup.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 8-1-1 in the Rays' last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees
