The Tampa Bay Rays looks to regroup after a 10-3 drubbing yesterday that left them 4.5 games behind the Yankees. A win Sunday gives Tampa Bay a series sweep and another game in the standings.
The New York Yankees enter Sunday hoping for a series win after sweeping their season series Saturday. They need a victory to keep the surging Rays from catching them in the standings.
Tampa Bay still has a chance to win the AL East, but they need a win in the worst way. Can they beat the Yankees in the Bronx? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Yankees.
Rays vs Yankees best odds
Rays vs Yankees picks and predictions
The Yankees opened at even money, moved a bit towards the short favorite and we’re going to take a shot on them winning this game.
Sunday is an important matchup for the struggling Yankees. They had a 15.5-game lead over Tampa Bay at the All-Star break, and that lead is now 4.5 games. New York needs to put some distance between them and Tampa Bay in the standings, and they have the right pitcher for the task in Domingo German.
German has been more than serviceable and on a Yankees pitching staff that's had its ups and downs. He gives them innings and a chance to win, and New York needs both right now.
German has thrown just 22 innings at home this season, but over his career, hitters slash .213/.284/.411/.705 and both wins in 2022 were at Yankee Stadium.
Tampa Bay has an 11th-best wRC+ with some power and the fifth-highest strikeout rate vs. righties in the game. German is striking out just over six per nine innings at home, and maybe he benefits from a couple more strikeouts against the free-swinging Rays offense?
Luis Patino is a young guy with five starts on the season, a low strikeout rate and serves up two bombs per nine away innings. Righties slug .622 against Patino and his 47% fly ball rate could appeal to mashers Aaron Judge, Josh Donaldson, and Giancarlo Stanton.
This season, New York has the fifth-highest wRC+ with a high walk rate, and the Yankees bats will likely make Patino suffer a bit Sunday.
German has been steady as a rock not only this season, but during his entire career pitching in the Bronx, and I’m going to back him Sunday.
My best bet: Yankees moneyline (-103 at Circa)
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Rays vs Yankees betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
We’ve already given you plenty of reasons to support the Yankees at home on Sunday, but there are a couple of other factors in this decision.
Tampa Bay is a sub .500 away team facing a Yankees side with a winning home record, and that’s always a great spot to play the home dog. Especially so when the home pitcher is 4-0 during his career as an underdog at Yankee Stadium.
Continuing with the trend is your friend, New York is 7-2 over their last nine vs. a right-handed starter and 7-2 vs. a team with a winning record.
Finally, the Yankees bullpen is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 3.67 xFIP during the month of September. They should be able to finish whatever German leaves them with en route to a crucial victory.
Over/Under analysis
Sundays haven’t been either offense's best friend, and I think 8.5 runs might be too many.
The Under is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last five Sunday contests and 4-0 over the Yankees' last four Sunday games.
New York may have a monster offense, but over their past 10 games, the Yankees have scored four runs or fewer in six of those matchups.
Tampa Bay doesn’t put many runs on the board and has eclipsed four runs or more in three of their last 10 games.
Finally, these bullpens have combined to allow just 14 earned runs during the month of September, and I expect these pens to keep up their fantastic pitching on Sunday.
Rays vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, YES
Starting pitchers
Luis Patino (1-1, 4.34 ERA): Patino has been tabbed to make the start, and he’s given up nine earned runs with 11 strikeouts over his previous 18.2 innings of work. The right-hander has a decent 3.73 xFIP alongside a dreadful 5.92 xFIP. His away numbers look less encouraging, and his road 6.82 xFIP suggests he might be in for a short night.
Domingo German (2-3, 3.27 ERA): German is expected to toe the slab, and he’s allowed nine earned runs with 21 punchouts over his past 31.2 frames. The Yankees righty offers a 4.21 xERA with a 4.54 xFIP overall, but his home 4.63 xFIP suggests maybe some regression is due for the veteran hurler.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 5-1 in their last six home games with the total set between 7 and 8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees
