This matchup features one of the most surprising teams in baseball going up against one of the game's biggest disappointments.
The Boston Red Sox keep bouncing back strong after getting knocked down and are looking up to only the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. Then there's the Atlanta Braves, who keep slipping after any hot streak they've been able to put together and sit third in their division at three games under .500.
Find out who we like in Tuesday's series opener with our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Braves at Truist Park on June 15.
Red Sox vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Tuesday, June 15, 2021
• Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports South, NESN
Red Sox vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis moneyline jumped the fence at TwinSpires, opening at Boston -114 and flipping to Atlanta -114 on the way to Atlanta -127. The Red Sox are landing 59 percent of moneyline bets, but the Braves are getting 79 percent of moneyline dollars. "We've seen some respected money on the Braves," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total moved from 9 to 9.5, with 72 percent of bets/55 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRed Sox vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez (5-4, 6.03 ERA): It's been a forgettable season for the Boston southpaw, who is on a horrifically bad stretch. Rodriguez has an 8.49 ERA over his last six outings, and he has allowed four-plus runs in six of his last eight starts. That includes his last outing against the Astros, who hit him around for six runs on six hits to drive his ERA up to 6.03. It was 3.82 just over a month ago going into his May 12th start.
Tucker Davidson (0-0, 1.53 ERA): Davidson is set to make his fourth start this season and comes into this contest having thrown 11 2-3 scoreless innings over his last two outings. The Top 10 Braves prospect made his MLB debut last year (appearing in one game) and was lights out at Triple-A Gwinnett over three starts in May. The lefty threw a career-high 90 pitches his last time out, inducing 10 groundball outs and punching out four over six innings against the Phillies.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Questionable), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Rodriguez's last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
Boston, which responded with a walk-off win Monday to split a four-game set with the Toronto Blue Jays after getting clobbered 18-4 the day before, was not expected to do this well, but it has hung around the top of the difficult AL East through two-plus months and has a legit lineup that can do damage.
Atlanta, meanwhile, appeared to be a powerhouse after taking the Dodgers to seven games in last year's NLCS but the club has been maddeningly inconsistent and enters the series opener having lost four of its last five. Pitching has setback the Braves but the team will turn to its hot rookie southpaw in search of a W against Rodriguez, who has been repeatedly pounded since April.
Rodriguez has had some difficult assignments, with three of his last five starts coming against the Blue Jays and Astros (twice), but the results are the results. He was obliterated in all three of those outings. But he's too talented to not turn things around eventually.
The left-hander was 3.7 WAR in his last full season, was a solid league-average arm prior to that, and thanks to good strikeout and walk ratios, coupled with a bloated home run rate that's likely to even out, he has a much more respectable 3.86 FIP and 3.49 xFIP. Banking on him to turn a corner on the road against a power-hitting Braves team that mashes in its home park is too risky a bet, though.
Being able to get the Braves as a home 'dog is just icing on the cake.
PREDICTION: Atlanta (-105)
Over/Under pick
Rodriguez has served up a homer in four consecutive outings and runs into an Atlanta club that leads the NL in long balls. And no team in baseball hits lefties for more power than the Braves, who rank first with a .200 ISO (which measures extra-base hit frequency).
Boston has struggled against left-handed pitching — ranking as the 21st-best offense in FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus — but it will be the most difficult lineup Davidson has faced this season. The Red Sox are a Top-5 team in both slugging and batting average, fuelled by middle-of-the-order righty bats Xander Bogaerts (.932 OPS) and J.D. Martinez (.915).
Even if Davidson can navigate this lineup, Atlanta's bullpen has been a major weakness, sporting a 4.77 ERA that ranks 26th in baseball. Boston's 'pen has been roughed up, too, as the group has a 4.92 ERA (24th in MLB) over the last 30 days. With the way Rodriguez has been throwing, Red Sox relievers are likely to be busy Tuesday.
Both teams pack power and this total actually feels a little light considering Rodriguez's struggles in addition to the shaky bullpens. We'll happily jump on the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-115)
Red Sox vs Braves betting card
- Atlanta (-105)
- Over 9 (-115)
Picks made on 6/15/2021 at 7:32 a.m. ET
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