The Chicago Cubs handed the Boston Red Sox their second consecutive loss on Saturday and now have a chance to sweep them. It would be the first time since May 8 that Boston lost three games in a series.
The Cubbies have now won four in a row, matching their longest winning streak of the year. Keegan Thompson has a chance to make it five when he takes the mound on Sunday.
Can the BoSox avoid their third straight loss or will Chicago bring out the brooms? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Cubs on July 2.
Red Sox vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Red Sox opened as the -125 favorites, but have dropped as low as -110. The Cubs began at +105 and have fallen to +100. The total has stayed at 8.5 with the Over at -118 and the Under at +100.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 7/3/2022 at 11:27 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, MARQ
Red Sox vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Connor Seabold (0-1, 13.50 ERA): The rookie right-hander made only his second career start, and first with the Red Sox, last Monday against the Toronto Blue Jays. Putting the 26-year-old on the mound away from home was a big test and unfortunately, Seabold flunked it. He gave up seven earned runs on nine hits, including three home runs. Seabold has three pitches, fastball, change up, and a slider.
Keegan Thompson (7-3, 3.34 ERA): Thompson began the season in the bullpen but got his first start on May 11. He has had nine starts and compiled a 4-3 record and two no decisions. In 41 1-3 innings, the 27-year-old right-hander has allowed 23 runs on 41 hits, including five home runs. He has also struck out 34. In his last start against the Cincinnati Reds, Thompson worked 6 1-3 innings and allowed four runs on eight hits. That was his second game this season where he has allowed four or more earned runs.
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Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-1 in the last five games between the Red Sox and Cubs. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Cubs
Red Sox vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Red Sox are trying to avoid a sweep against the Cubs and are sending rookie pitcher Connor Seabold to the mound. He was rocked in his last start — just the second of his career — giving up seven runs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Despite all the runs, Seabold had moments that showed why the Sox personnel are so high on him. He struck out seven and showed how effective his change up can be.
“The fastball has some life up there and there’s some good hitters on that team,” Manager Alex Cora said after the game. “To be able to do that against them, he’s a good one. It just happened that it was the first one this year against a tough time. It’s a guy we really like.”
Seabold has another pitch that wasn’t working his last start. If he can get his slider to cooperate then he should be far more effective.
Besides, he is facing a Chicago lineup that isn’t nearly as potent as Toronto’s. The Cubs are 10th in batting average and are 14th in both runs and RBI, averaging 4.30 runs per game.
Though they haven’t really shown it against the Cubbies, the Red Sox are second in the league in batting average and hits, seventh in RBI, and ninth in runs. Expect the law of averages to even out with Boston's bats giving enough run support to the rookie Seabold for the BoSox to avoid the sweep.
Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (-105 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Both pitchers gave up plenty of runs in their last outing and this will definitely help the Over. Thompson has an ERA of 3.34, but his ERA for June is 5.93. In his last outing, he allowed four earned runs on eight hits.
Thompson has had two other outings in the month where he gave up three or more earned runs. On June 12 against the New York Yankees, he couldn’t get out of the first inning, allowing five runs, three earned, on three hits. The start before that, he went three innings, allowing seven earned runs on five hits, including three home runs.
Seabold’s sample size is not as large but is similarly bad. The rookie made the second start of his career, first with Boston, and faced the Toronto Blue Jays. In 4 2-3 innings, the 26-year-old allowed seven earned runs on nine hits, including home runs by George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Matt Chapman.
Seabold won’t be allowing seven runs against the Cubs, But between him and Thompson, there should be enough runs to hit the Over.
The Over has hit for the Cubs five of the last six games when the total is between 7.0-8.5. It has also hit in four of the team’s last five games.
The Over is even more prevalent for the Red Sox. In Boston’s last four interleague games, the Over has hit every time. It has also hit also hit in three of its last four in Game 3 of a series.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-118 at BetRivers)
Best bet
In the four games in June where Thompson and Seabold gave up three or more runs, three of them happened before the fifth inning. It is a tendency that should continue on Sunday.
Thompson hit five runs by the second inning in both the June 12 game against the Yankees and the June 7 outing against the Baltimore Orioles.
Seabold was rocked for seven runs against Toronto by the middle of the fifth before he was pulled. In the first game of this series, the Red Sox scored four runs by the second inning. The Cubs then got five in the fifth.
The Sox are 13th in the league in first five innings scoring with 2.60 runs, while Chicago is second at 2.92. If both teams reach their average, the Over will hit. Count on that happening.
Pick: First five innings Over 4.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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