The Los Angeles Dodgers hope for a revival in the second half after dropping seven of their last 10 games before the All-Star Break.
I take a closer look at the total with my MLB picks for Friday, July 19.
Red Sox vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Both teams return to the field for an intriguing interleague matchup on Friday night. I have my eye on both starting pitchers, Nick Pivetta for the Boston Red Sox and Gavin Stone for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Pivetta’s 4.18 ERA may not stand out, but his underlying numbers are strong. For the second year in a row, his xERA (3.74), FIP (3.86), and xFIP (3.45) are all below 4.00, so we should expect some positive regression in the second half.
His name may not ring out with excitement to the average baseball fan since he’s a known veteran by now, but some would be surprised to learn that the 31-year-old leads the Majors in Stuff+ (136) among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings. That’s nine points ahead of second-place Jared Jones, painting the picture that he’s working with a deadly arsenal.
Not only does the vet have nasty offerings, but he locates them well too, ranking eighth in Location+ (106). His flyball tendencies have gotten him into trouble at Fenway Park but he’s been surgical away from home with a 2.97 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. L.A. has a star-studded lineup but is missing Mookie Betts, ranking 17th in wRC+ and 20th in wOBA against RHP at home since June 16.
Now for the Dodgers and Stone; the second-year man has surpassed expectations with a 3.26 ERA, 3.77 xERA, and 3.56 FIP. He’s been superb at suppressing hard contact (90th-percentile barrel rate, 79th-percentile hard-hit percentage) and as long as that remains the case, it’s hard not to fancy his chances of remaining effective over the second half of the season.
Boston had some high-scoring games to end the second half and ranks well in most metrics, but it’s worth keeping in mind that the weather was insane at Fenway for quite a few of those recent games. Despite playing in a handful of very hitter-friendly game environments, the Red Sox still went 0-5 O/U to close out the first half.
Both teams have effective bullpens operating at full strength after four days of rest. Sign me up for the Under.
Red Sox vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 hits
Nick Pivetta Under 1.5 walks allowed
All eyes will be on Teoscar Hernandez after he became the first Dodgers player to win the Home Run Derby on Monday. That said, he’s in for a tough matchup as he’s just 3-for-24 against Pivetta in his career with a sorry .125/.192/.208 slash line.
Pivetta tends to pitch to contact more away from home, lowering his BB/9 from 3.1 at Fenway to 1.8 on the road. This is the second year in a row in which there’s been a drastic difference in those numbers, so I’m not chalking it up as a fluke.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Dodgers odds
Red Sox vs Dodgers live odds
Red Sox vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-185) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Boston +125 | Los Angeles -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Red Sox vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both starting pitchers have led their respective teams to victory lately as the Dodgers are 10-3 in Stone’s last 13 starts while the Red Sox are 5-2 in Pivetta’s last seven.
- The Red Sox are 5-0 in Pivetta’s last five road starts.
- The Dodgers have underperformed offensively at home, cashing their team total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at Dodger Stadium.
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Red Sox vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers are 2-6 O/U in Gavin Stone’s last eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Dodgers
Red Sox vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, SportsNet LA |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.18 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Gavin Stone (9-3, 3.26 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Dodgers latest injuries
Red Sox vs Dodgers weather
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