The Boston Red Sox face off against the Cleveland Guardians in MLB action on Wednesday night. This is the second contest in a three-game set at Progressive Field, with the Red Sox edging the Guardians 5-4 last night.
MLB betting lines opened with the Guardians as slim -130 home favorites before growing to -145 by 11 a.m. Here are my best free Red Sox vs. Guardians MLB picks and predictions for June 7.
Red Sox vs Guardians odds
Red Sox vs Guardians predictions
The Red Sox are sending Kutter Crawford to the bump today for a spot start. While he hasn't lit the world on fire, he should be able to limit the Guardians in the early going before handing the ball off to a capable bullpen.
Crawford looked awful in his season debut but has allowed just 12 hits and three runs in 20 1/3 innings since then. The righty pitched four innings in a relief appearance against the Guardians earlier this year, scattering three hits and surrendering one run back on April 28.
The Guardians will respond with righthander Tanner Bibee. The rookie has been solid this year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA and looking sharp in the majority of his seven starts.
Bibee has a four-seamer that ranks in the Top 30th percentile of the majors in both velocity and spin, but he's heavily reliant on that offering, and opponents have been hitting it hard. He throws that heater almost half the time, and opponents are batting .275 against it with a hard hit rate of 47.4%.
That's bad news against a Red Sox team that makes good contact and sits down on fastballs. In fact, Boston's lineup is anchored by Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo, and Justin Turner, who all have an expected slugging percentage above .550 against four-seamers.
That should be the difference in this matchup with the Red Sox being the far more effective team at the dish. The Guardians are second-last in the majors in hard hit rate and average exit velocity, while ranking dead-last in barrel rate. With not much of an edge on the mound for either squad, I'll back the far more reliable offense at plus money.
My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (+125 at bet365)
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Red Sox vs Guardians moneyline analysis
The Red Sox beat the Guardians 5-4 as +100 underdogs last night to improve their record to 31-30. That was their eighth win in their last nine trips to Progressive Field, and dropped Cleveland's record to 27-33 on the year.
As previously mentioned, both young starters have been solid this season. Crawford ranks in the Top 20th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and expected ERA (3.03), while Bibee has a comparable xERA (3.29) in a larger sample size.
The big difference between these teams comes at the plate. Led by Devers and Yoshida, the Red Sox are fifth in the majors in OPS (.763) while the Guardians rank just 29th (.650).
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been Cleveland's only productive hitters, and both have middling numbers with an identical batting average of .260 and slugging percentages below .450. Not only are the Guardians batting just .233, but they rank last in the majors in isolated power. They need to do a better job of generating extra-base hits.
Red Sox vs Guardians Over/Under analysis
There are a few reasons to lean towards the Under today, and even yesterday only two runs were scored until the eighth inning when the bullpens struggled — an area where both teams have typically been solid.
Boston's bullpen has made strides this season and currently ranks 12th in the majors in ERA (3.88) and 13th in WHIP (1.27).
Enyel de los Santos fell apart in the eighth inning for the Guardians last night, but they still have one of the top bullpens around. Their relievers collectively have the third-best ERA (3.19) and second-best WHIP (1.18) in the majors.
While the Red Sox are fourth in the majors in scoring with 5.10 runs per game, that number drops to just 4.36 away from Fenway. Meanwhile, Cleveland's pathetic lineup averages just 2.82 runs per game at home.
The winds gusting off Lake Erie could also play a factor, with winds averaging 13 mph and blowing towards the infield tonight.
Red Sox vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, BSGL |
Starting pitchers
Kutter Crawford (1-2, 3.48 ERA): Crawford had a 5.47 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP in 77 1/3 innings as a rookie last season. The 27-year-old began this season with a pair of starts (an ugly outing against the Pirates and a solid performance versus the Tigers) before making eight appearances out of the bullpen. He came back into the rotation last Saturday, allowing a pair of hits and a single run in three innings against the Rays.
Tanner Bibee (1-1, 3.20 ERA): The 24-year-old rookie has a 3.23 FIP with a 1.12 WHIP through seven starts. In his previous outing last Thursday, Bibee scattered six hits and allowed three runs in five innings of work against the Twins.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Red Sox are 4-0 in the last four meetings between these AL foes in Cleveland. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Guardians.
