Sunday Night Baseball spotlights the American League East as the Boston Red Sox face the Baltimore Orioles.
This will mark the third and final game of the series. Baltimore won a 15-10 barnburner in Game 1, while Boston took Game 2 by a score of 4-3 as Michael Wacha picked up the win.
The BoSox will need to turn things around quickly if they hope to grab a Wild Card spot. Currently, they are five games back while the O's are 2.5 back.
Check out our MLB betting picks and predictions for the Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles on Sunday, August 21.
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Baltimore opened +102 at home, but the line has shifted. Currently, the Orioles reside between +100 and -110 depending on the book. The total opened at 9.0 but has moved to 8.5 across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs Orioles predictions
Picks made on 8/21/2022 at 10:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs Orioles game info
• Location: Muncy Bank Ballpark at Bowman Field, Williamsport, PA
• Date: Sunday, August 21, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Red Sox vs Orioles betting preview
Starting pitchers
Nick Pivetta (9-9, 4.28 ERA): Pivetta once showed promise as a prospect, but he’s never fully capitalized on the potential that many thought he possessed. His 4.99 career ERA is far from a pretty sight, and he’s never kept an ERA below 4.00 for a full season. Will 2022 be the first time? His 4.39 xERA is OK at best and he issues too many free passes (8.7% walk rate).
Dean Kremer (5-4, 3.58 ERA): Kremer started 17 games at the big league level across 2020 and 2021. The results weren’t pretty, highlighted by a 7.55 ERA in 13 starts a year ago. He seems to have turned things around this year, although his 4.58 xERA does indicate that his 3.58 ERA may be due for some regression. He doesn’t strike out many batters (18.8% strikeout rate) but does a good job of limiting walks (5.5% walk rate).
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Orioles are 27-13 in their last 40 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles
Red Sox vs Orioles picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Both of these teams will need to make a move soon if they hope to be playing postseason baseball. The Orioles are 2.5 games back after going just 4-6 in their last 10 games, while the Red Sox are in danger of becoming an afterthought if they fall farther than 5 games back — which is where they stand currently.
Baltimore has been hot, going 27-13 in its last 40 games overall. The Orioles lost Game 2 last night but have been responding well in that scenario, going 8-3 in their last 11 games following a loss.
The lineup has been mashing at the plate, ranking fourth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ since the calendar flipped to August. That’s a far cry from the Red Sox, who rank 20th in both categories over that time frame.
Boston hasn’t shown many signs of life. The lineup has gone cold for a while now, and the other areas of the team aren’t strong enough to make up an absence of firepower at the plate. The Red Sox have particularly struggled against their own division, going 5-11 in their last 16 games against the AL East.
Neither team is sending a particularly adept starting pitcher to the mound, so I don’t see an advantage for either side. Kremer (4.58 xERA) and Pivetta (4.39 xERA) have relatively similar peripherals.
Call it a feeling, but the Orioles seem more motivated to capture a Wild Card spot and have been a pleasant surprise this season. They’ve been one of the most profitable teams to back all year, as a $100/game bettor would be up $2,510 if they played them on the moneyline every game this season. I don’t think it’d be wise to hop off the train now.
Prediction: Orioles moneyline (EVEN at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
These teams exploded for 25 combined runs in Game 1 on Friday before settling down for only seven combined runs on Saturday — en route to cashing an Under ticket. Will Sunday’s series finale be more like the former or the latter?
Pivetta’s number may be middle of the road, but he’s been an Over pitcher this season. The Red Sox have gone Over the total in 14 of his 21 starts this year. Kremer has been the opposite, as the Orioles are 9-4 to the Under in his 13 starts as books have badly miscalculated his improvements this year.
I don’t find either’s profile particularly trustworthy and am scared off by the hard contact both are allowing. Pivetta has a 5.9% barrel rate while Kremer’s is 6.2%, so both are prone to get bombed.
Baltimore has been a Top-5 lineup in the month of August and is 19-9-1 to the Over in its last 29 games against the AL East. Boston has been trending to the Over lately, going 3-1-1 in its last five games.
I’m a believer in this Orioles lineup but don’t have confidence in either starting pitcher. Therefore, I’ll be backing the Over for Sunday Night Baseball.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-103 at Unibet)
Best bet
I’m a believer in this Orioles team. They were counted out by nearly everyone before the season but have done nothing but compete all season long.
A lineup with few easy outs has been among the league’s best, ranking fourth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ in August. While Kremer is no world beater, he’s been an undervalued starter and Baltimore is 8-5 in games in which he starts. He has a 3.41 ERA at home and a 2.57 ERA during night games, so this may be a good spot for him.
I’m backing Baltimore to pick up a win on Sunday Night Baseball and continue a push toward a surprise AL Wild Card spot. The Orioles have been hot, picking up 27 wins in their last 40 games, and it’s apparent that playing postseason baseball is important to these players. This is a motivated squad that is beating the cover off the ball, and I’m on their side tonight.
Pick: Orioles moneyline (EVEN at BetMGM)
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