Two of the top teams in the AL East face off this evening as the Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox at Camden Yards. The Orioles are home favorites on the MLB odds board after a 5-1 win on Thursday night to open the series.
Boston has been up and down recently with just two wins in its last eight contests, and my Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions expect Baltimore to stay hot at home. Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, August 16.
Red Sox vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Orioles -1.5 (+115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Baltimore Orioles have a significant advantage on the mound with Corbin Burnes getting the start tonight. The former Cy Young winner is 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA on the season, with the Orioles prevailing in his last five starts.
On the flip side, the Boston Red Sox are starting Brennan Bernardino as an opener in Baltimore tonight. He’s been fine on the season (4-3, 3.79 ERA), but Boston's bullpen ERA of 4.37 is the fifth-worst in the league.
Burnes has been a workhorse for Baltimore after an offseason trade from Milwaukee. He had a shakier start with a 3-2 record through his first eight starts, but that was more so due to Baltimore’s lack of offense. Since May 19, the Orioles are 12-3 in Burnes’ starts, with all but one of those victories coming by at least two runs.
The Orioles have also had the Red Sox’s number this season. They’re 6-1 in seven meetings thus far, and none of those wins have been particularly close. The O’s have outscored the Sox 48-23 in those seven games, and all six Baltimore wins covered the -1.5 spread.
Given the steep moneyline price and the O’s recent dominance over the Sox, we’re going with the run line tonight.
Red Sox vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles -1.5
Gunnar Henderson 2+ total bases
Corbin Burnes 5+ strikeouts
Gunnar Henderson recently had a tough stretch on the road where he went hitless in four games (15 at-bats). Since then, however, he’s 9 for 21 (.429) with two home runs and a double.
Burnes doesn’t overpower hitters to rack up the strikeouts but he has had at least five punchouts in 19 of his 24 starts, including in both outings against the Sox this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
Red Sox vs Orioles live odds
Red Sox vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-115) | Baltimore -1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Boston +185 | Baltimore -225
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Red Sox vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles have since dropped to -180 on the moneyline, with Boston taking most of the handle and tickets.
- The Red Sox have only covered the run line in 47 of their last 110 games (-25.20 Units / -17% ROI).
- Across the board, the total is currently set at either 8.5 or 9.
Red Sox vs Orioles trend
Red Sox vs. Orioles trend
Baltimore has cashed the run line in 65 of its last 121 games (+17.70 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles.
Red Sox vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, 8-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, MASN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (4-4, 4.02 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (12-4, 2.71 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries
Red Sox vs Orioles weather
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