The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles face off at Camden Yards on May 28 in the second game of a three-game set, with the O's winning 11-3 last night.
Baltimore is a -158 favorite today with rising star Grayson Rodriguez on the mound, but my Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction expect him to struggle with his control. Here are my MLB picks for this AL East showdown.
Red Sox vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Grayson Rodriguez Over 1.5 walks (-135 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Baltimore Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez has gone 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA and an OBA of .235 this season. Those numbers are actually a bit skewed because of one awful start where he surrendered 11 hits and seven runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Angels last month. In his other seven starts, he pitched to a 1.99 ERA while allowing just 29 hits across 40 2/3 innings.
However, the 24-year-old right hander has struggled in one key area: control. Rodriguez is in the Bottom 30th percentile in walk rate and the fact he's good enough to pitch deep into games has resulted in consistently high walk numbers.
The O/U on Rodriguez's walks is set at 1.5, with the Over juiced at -135. He's gone Over that number in six of his last seven starts and has walked a whopping 11 batters in his last three games. This has been an issue for him going back to his rookie campaign last year when he gave out at least two free passes in 16 of 24 starts.
The Boston Red Sox don't get walks at a particularly high rate, but they rank 13th in the majors with 3.13 walks per game, and this number is simply priced too low for Rodriguez.
Red Sox vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Grayson Rodriguez Over 1.5 walks
Rodriguez Under 2.5 earned runs
Ryan Mountcastle Under 1.5 hits
Rodriguez has struggled with his control, but he has still been sharp, allowing fewer than 2.5 earned runs in seven of eight starts. The Red Sox are just 24th in xBA (.237) and have plated just 2.5 runs over their last four games. Taking the Over on Rodriguez's walks and the Under on his earned runs makes for a nice multiplier in an SGP.
Mountcastle went 3-for-4 at the dish last night and racked up four hits last Thursday against the White Sox, but the O/U on his hits shouldn't be set at 1.5 with the Under juiced to -185 (implied probability of 64.9%).
Keep in mind he picked up fewer than 1.5 hits in 22 of his last 28 games (78.6%). He has also gone 1-for-5 against Boston starter Brayan Bello in his career and tends to hit worse against righties.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
Red Sox vs Orioles live odds
Red Sox vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-150) | Baltimore -1.5 (+125)
- Moneyline: Boston +135 | Baltimore -160
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Red Sox vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Orioles and the Under, shifting the ML from -160 to -170 and moving the total down to 8.0.
- The Orioles have won five games in a row and have the fourth-best record in the majors at 34-18.
- The Red Sox are 27-27 and have lost all four games against Baltimore this year.
- Brayan Bello has an xERA of 4.25 in eight starts this year and has surrendered six runs in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the O's.
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Red Sox vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have cashed the first five innings run line in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles
Red Sox vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, MASN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (5-2, 4.04 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (5-1, 3.20 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries
Red Sox vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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