Red Sox vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Sox Shut Down in St. Petersburg

The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays wrap up their four-game series at Tropicana Field on Thursday afternoon. 

The Red Sox are looking to avoid the broom, trying to hand the Rays their first loss of the season.

The Rays picked up the 9-7 win on Wednesday, building a 6-1 lead through four innings, and then hanging on late. Tampa Bay is a perfect 12-0 heading into the series finale.

Will the Red Sox be able to snap a three-game losing streak, or will the Rays complete the sweep while remaining unbeaten? We’ll discuss in our MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Rays on Thursday, April 13.

Red Sox vs Rays odds

Red Sox vs Rays predictions

The Rays piled on the offense early on Tuesday against LHP Chris Sale, staying perfect on the season. They can match the best start in MLB history at 13-0 with a win on Thursday.

Tampa Bay has done it a number of different ways, while sometimes using pitching and defense to win, while other times using power and speed. On Wednesday, it was the latter, as OF Randy Arozarena had a three-run homer to help the Rays jump all over Sale. 

The Rays have managed a league-best 30 home runs with 92 runs scored, and the next closest team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, has 24 homers and 79 runs.

The Red Sox have been outscored 17-9 in this three-game series, allowing 8.0 runs per game (RPG) across the past two outings. In six games against divisional foes, Boston pitching has yielded 6.7 RPG.

On the flip side, the Rays have scored seven or more runs in seven of the previous eight outings, while going for four or more runs in all but the series opener against the Red Sox on Monday.

Tampa Bay has been rock-solid in every facet of the game, and it can beat you any number of different ways. The team turns to LHP Jeffrey Springs to keep the winning going. He was the beneficiary of a deluge of offensive support last time out, as the Rays won 11-0 on April 8. He was on the positive side of a 5-1 win April 2 against the Detroit Tigers, too.

Springs has been sharp, and the Red Sox are ranked No. 17 in the majors on the young season against left-handed pitching, hitting just .246 through 11 games. 

With the Red Sox middling against southpaws, and Springs giving up next to nothing so far, the lean is to the Under for the total.

My best bet: Under 8 (-105 at Caesars)

Red Sox vs Rays moneyline analysis

There are bettors out there fading the Rays every night, presumably playing the law of averages. After all, baseball is a grind, and even some of the best teams lose 60-65 times per season. Well, so far, Tampa Bay is perfect through 7.4% of the regular season MLB schedule. OK, that’s a bit dramatic, but it is true.

Boston turns to veteran RHP Corey Kluber in his third start in a Red Sox uniform. He was shaky in his opening outing, allowing five runs and six hits with two homers in just 3 1/3 innings against the Baltimore Orioles at home. He was a little better against the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out, allowing just a run in five frames, but he was still on the losing end.

The right-hander, a.k.a. “Klubot”, pitched for the Rays last season, and he served up 20 homers in just 164 innings of work. He’s coughed up three homers in just 8 1/3 innings to date. Tampa Bay leads the league in homers, so it appears like another recipe for success.

Dating back to last season, the Red Sox are 8-20 in the past 28 games on the road. Boston is also 0-4 in the past four against winning teams.

It’s no surprise that all of the trends for the Rays are very good. Not only are they 12-0, but Tampa Bay has won its past seven against right-handed starting pitchers. It’s also 7-3 in the past 10 Game 4s of a series, while cashing at a 38-15 clip in the past 53 at home, a .717 winning percentage.

Tampa Bay should “spring” its way to another victory, matching the ’82 Braves and ’87 Brew Crew for most wins without a loss to start the regular season.

Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under analysis

The Red Sox didn’t cash the Over in Monday’s series opener, but the total has gone high in each of the past two games in this series. The Over is also 9-4 in the past 13 games overall for the Red Sox.

However, while that wasn’t meant to scare you, know that the Under is 6-2 in their past eight on the road against left-handed starting pitchers. And know that Springs has allowed just one run in his 13 innings of work, while yielding just three hits and four walks while lasting at least six frames in both.

Playing the Under goes against the trends for Tampa Bay, too. However, no one has been able to hit Springs so far, and the Red Sox struggle against southpaws, too. 

I think the Rays leave the yard at least once against Kluber, but this total still comes in Under eight runs.

Red Sox vs Rays game info

Red Sox vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Corey Kluber (0-2, 6.48 ERA): The veteran allowed nine homers across 87 1/3 innings across 15 starts at Tropicana Field last season as a member of the Rays. His inability to keep the ball in the park will be very dangerous against the hottest hitting power team in the majors.

Jeffery Springs (2-0, 0.00 ERA): The 30-year-old North Carolinian southpaw has won each of his previous starts, both at home, and teams are hitting just .075 against him in his 13 innings of work. He hasn’t allowed a homer yet, while walking just four batters with 19 strikeouts.

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