The ALDS has arrived as the New York Yankees welcome the Kansas City Royals to town to kick off their best-of-seven series.
As impressive as Kansas City looked getting here, my Royals vs. Yankees predictions see the home side asserting itself early.
Find out why in my MLB picks for Saturday, October 5th, and check out our Royals vs. Yankees prop picks for more great bets!
Royals vs Yankees prediction
Who will win Royals vs Yankees Game 1?
The Yankees will win this game. Dispatching the young Orioles was a much different task for the Royals than this one. New York features a veteran side that has failed at previous attempts to make a World Series run, and we'll have been waiting for this after missing the postseason a year ago.
My Royals vs Yankees best bet
Yankees first five -0.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Just mentioning the two opposing pitchers without context screams that the New York Yankees have an advantage here. Go ahead and try it.
Michael Wacha will take the mound for the Kansas City Royals, while Gerrit Cole will take the mound for the Yankees in the same postseason game. See what I mean?
My projections agreed and made the price of my best bet of the Yankees' first five run-line around -162. That's quite a feed, given that New York is generally one of the most overpriced sports teams, especially in the postseason. That's not the case here, and we're capitalizing on that.
Wacha is a fine pitcher. Saying a future Hall of Fame hurler like Cole is better than him now is undoubtedly far from disrespectful. But beyond that, the most unfortunate aspect for Wacha is how this game plays out from a matchup perspective. The weak lines of Wacha's game are where New York has capitalized all season.
You're bringing a pitcher with a barrel-rate issue into the Bronx on the opening night of the Yankees’ playoff run. He ranks in the bottom 40% of baseball. That’s a big issue when facing this Yankees team, which not only ranks first in barrel rate, but has two of the best barrel players in the sport: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. This issue is only worse for Wacha when you consider how often he throws the fastball — a pitch the Yankees feast on.
Cole certainly hasn't had the best season of his career as he worked himself back from an injury, but he looked better coming into the postseason. He finished the year allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts, and you're inclined to like the matchup here.
Throughout his career, Cole has been known as a strikeout pitcher, and that hasn't changed — even in a down season.
He's still getting a good amount of whiffs from opposing teams and is still ranked in the Top 15% of K rate. He will have plenty of opportunities to use that against the Royals. Only one team in the postseason remaining has a higher swing rate than the Royals; they've also paired that with a Top-10 chase rate.
That means Cole is in an excellent position to control this game. Given the stakes and his historical performances when the stakes are at their highest, you'd back him to do that. Give me New York early.
Royals vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees first five -0.5
Giancarlo Stanton home run
It might be human nature for any pitcher to take a breather once they get past Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in the lineup. Today, we expect Giancarlo Stanton to take advantage of that and pair him to hit a home run with our best bet.
Stanton will see a lot of the changeup tonight. It leads Wacha’s pitching arsenal. That's terrible news for him, too, as no Yankee player has a higher hard-hit rate against the changeup or hit more home runs against it this season than Stanton. I like my chances on the value of this play.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Yankees odds
Royals vs Yankees live odds
Royals vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +166 | New York -182
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Royals vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have had control of these meetings this season, with a 5-2 head-to-head advantage.
- The Under has been a good bet when the Royals have played recently. The total has gone in that direction in eight of Kansas City’s last 10 games.
- New York comes into this one with a 5-5 record over its last 10 games. However, the last three of its series, in which it lost two of three, were essentially meaningless.
- After sweeping the Orioles in the AL Wild Card, the Royals have won six of their last 10 games.
Royals vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 62 of their last 104 games (+19.65 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Yankees.
Royals vs Yankees Game 1 info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (10-6, 2.93 ERA) |
Royals vs Yankees latest injuries
Royals vs Yankees weather
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