The New York Yankees will be looking to go to Kansas City with a 2-0 advantage in the ALDS when Game 2 takes place in the Bronx on Monday night. However, the Royals will have other ideas and a good chance of executing them as Cole Ragans takes the mound.
Early success for Ragans will be at the heart of my Royals vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for October 7.
Royals vs Yankees prediction
Who will win Royals vs Yankees Game 2?
The Royals are the better-positioned team to win this game and should take care of business.
Kansas City's starting pitching has a considerable advantage in matchup and form. Also, Yankees star Aaron Judge's postseason struggles continued in Game 1 of this series, which could be an issue against an elite pitcher.
My Royals vs Yankees best bet
Royals F5 +0.5
-135 at bet365
My analysis
The safest assumption about this game is that Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Cole Ragan's incredible form continues. The lefty has a sub-1.00 ERA over his last five starts, and one of those came against the New York Yankees.
There are plenty of ways to capture that in a bet. I also wanted to factor in some aspect of Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodon here. Considering all that, my best bet is for the Royals to lead or be tied after five innings. You can find it in multiple books for -135, which is quite an edge on my projected price of -148.
As mentioned, Ragans faced the Yankees nearly a month ago in the Bronx. It was the worst of his last five starts, where he allowed two earned runs over six innings. It's worth mentioning that this game occurred on September 11, which provided a unique and largely unqualifiable motivation for the Yankees.
Ragans was highly unlucky in that start as those two runs came on just three New York hits. I'm expecting that to go differently here. I'm also expecting the Royals to have an edge over Rodon.
Rodon has not met the expectations New York had when they traded for him. This season has been an example of that with some up-and-down performances. He'll enter this game with a few issues; the most notable is a combo of a hard-hit and barrel rate set in the Bottom 30% of baseball.
The barrel rate is particularly bad, which is something the Royals can seize on.
Kansas City isn't a team with excessive barrel power throughout its lineup, but it has some hot hitters who are among some of the best in that metric in the spot. One that jumps off the page is MJ Melendez, who has a barrel rate in the Top 30% of baseball and has also been hot.
Melendez has an OPS of over .800 and a batting average of over .280 this postseason. Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. rank highly in these metrics, too. Between the three, there's enough here to cause tons of issues for Rodon.
New York hasn't struggled against any pitching this season overall — whether that be lefties or righties. However, if there's a place where they see a dropoff, it's against left-handed pitchers, at least from time to time. When you add things like Ragans being one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, then you begin to really like the chances for the Royals tonight.
Royals vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Royals F5 +0.5
Juan Soto Over 0.5 walks
I'm pairing my best bet with Juan Soto to draw a walk. It's a nice strength-on-weakness play.
The lone area Ragans has struggled in this season is pitch location. He can be erratic from time to time, which is why his BB% is among the lowest in the sport.
Is there any player on the New York roster with better plate vision than Soto? The numbers certainly don't think so. I priced this at -161, so getting it at -145 feels like a nice bargain.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Yankees odds
Royals vs Yankees live odds
Royals vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +133 | New York -144
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Royals vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Under has been a good bet when the Royals have played recently. The total has gone in that direction in seven of the last 10 games for Kansas City.
- New York comes into this one with a 6-4 record over its last 10 games. However, two of their last three losses came in essentially meaningless games.
- After sweeping the Orioles in the AL Wild Card but losing the opener in this series, the Royals have won six of their last 10 games.
Royals vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 62 of their last 104 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Yankees.
Royals vs Yankees Game 2 info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 10-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) |
Royals vs Yankees latest injuries
Royals vs Yankees weather
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