It was a 2-1 day here on Monday, but we deserved a better fate on the Grant Holmes Over 4.5 hits at plus money. Today is a new day and there are a lot of pitchers — and their pitch counts — to look into.
These are my favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 1.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 1
Wesneski Under 3.5 hits allowed (+132 at bet365)
Patrick Over 1.5 earned runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Sale Under 17.5 outs recorded (+135 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Giants vs. Astros
The angle: Hayden Wesneski might be going shorter than anticipated.
The move: Hayden Wesneski Under 3.5 hits allowed (+132 at bet365)
Houston Astros starter Hayden Wesneski is not a long-leashed pitcher. He was a starter last year but was moved to a long-relief role. He never recorded more than 10 outs in the spring and recently got hit with a comebacker and had to leave his last start early. THE BAT is projecting 74 pitches and 13.1 outs from the home-side starter.
His Under 1.5 walks allowed market was hit this morning but is still a buy at +125 or better, so I'm pivoting to his Under 3.5 hits allowed at +132 at bet365, which still is +EV. He allowed less than a hit per inning in the spring and had just 82 hits allowed over 89 innings last year.
The San Francisco Giants get on base at one of the lowest rates to begin the year and the bottom of the order is easy to navigate. I'm hoping for two times through the order.
If you can get the Under 1.5 walks at +125 or better, that's the best move. If that is gone — and it should be — get the Under 3.5 hits allowed to +120. If that is gone, then Under 1.5 earned runs at +120 or better is the next best move.
Royals vs. Brewers
The angle: Despite pitching on Saturday, Chad Patrick could see 18+ batters today.
The move: Chad Patrick Over 1.5 earned runs (-110 at DraftKings)
Chad Patrick will make his first MLB start today but did pitch 22 pitches on Saturday in a relief role. However, he had been stretched out in the spring, going around 80 pitches. If we can get him to go through the order twice and around 60 pitches, he could give up some runs.
This is not a great pitcher to begin with and is only getting the start because of injuries to the rotation. He had a 5.45 ERA in the minors two years ago and also gave up five earned runs over eight innings in the spring. He also gave up two hits and a walk in his one inning Saturday, which included a home run to the light-hitting Oswaldo Peraza.
The Milwaukee Brewers are also desperate for starter innings with how things have gone so far, with several injuries combined with ineffectiveness exposing their lack of rotation depth already.
If Patrick goes four innings, this could be a breeze but this can cash with a shorter outing, too. There are a lot of outs.
Braves vs. Dodgers
The angle: Chris Sale has to battle the wind, the Dodgers, and a leash.
The move: Chris Sale Under 17.5 outs recorded (+135 at bet365)
Chris Sale went just 15 outs in his first start and threw 84 pitches. He gave up three runs and struck out seven. It was a mixed bag for the lefty, who now has to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road today, and getting through six innings might not be in the cards.
The first thing I like here is that Brian Snitker is not afraid to shorten his outing even with the lead as Sale exited his first start after five innings with the Atlanta Braves up 4-3.
Next are the conditions. Dodger Stadium has 20+ mph winds blowing out to right field. He has pretty even splits vs lefties and righties, so any extra help for the LHHs is welcomed on this prop.
Finally, it's just a tough matchup. The Padres strung six hits and a walk against Sale, and now the Dodgers will make him sweat.
The Covers projection has him going 16.8 outs, and expecting Sale — with his injury history — to go 90+ pitches is a tough ask while facing the best lineup in baseball this early in the season.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
