There aren’t many teams happier to turn the page on the first half of this MLB season than the Toronto Blue Jays — a team that began the season with pennant aspirations but is coming out of the break last in the AL East.
Tigers vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 3.5 (+110 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Not much went right for the Toronto Blue Jays in the first half of this season. The lineup could not produce outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the starting pitching was hot and cold, and the bullpen was a dumpster fire.
One guy potentially on the move is starting pitcher Chris Bassitt. Despite a slow start, the right-hander has arguably been the Blue Jays’ best starter recently. He has pitched to a 2.69 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 13 starts since May 1, holding opponents to three earned runs or fewer 12 times during that period.
Bassitt gets a solid matchup against the Detroit Tigers who struggled when going against right-handed pitching in the first half of the season. Detroit ranks 23rd in batting average, 21st in OPS, and 20th in wRC+ vs. righties to this point.
The Tigers counter Bassitt with Jack Flaherty, who's having a career resurgence in Detroit. The right-hander is pitching to a 3.13 ERA, an 0.98 WHIP, and has the highest strikeout rate of his career at 32.1%, which ranks in the Top 6% of the league.
Toronto’s numbers against right-handers are a little better ranking, 19th in batting average, 17th in OPS, and 15th in wRC+, but there has been no consistency in this lineup with guys like Bo Bichette and Justin Turner struggling.
So, Under 7.5 looks like a solid bet, right? Hold your horses. Toronto's bullpen has been a disaster and has the second-worst ERA in baseball. Detroit's bullpen isn’t that bad, but it isn’t great either. Instead, let’s stick with the first-five Under in this matchup and take those suspect relievers out of the equation.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was Toronto's only All-Star this season and while that was a disappointing fact for Jays fans, he certainly earned that selection.
Guerrero also broke out of his mini-funk just before the break, tallying three hits in the series finale against the Diamondbacks, and I actually don’t mind this matchup against Flaherty for him. The
Then Flaherty will hand the ball to a Detroit bullpen that isn’t as bad as Toronto’s but it isn’t great, ranking 19th in xFIP.
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Tigers vs Blue Jays odds
Tigers vs Blue Jays live odds
Tigers vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-225) | Toronto -1.5 (+185)
- Moneyline: Detroit -110 | Toronto -110
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Tigers vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- This AL matchup opened as basically a coin flip with both sides priced at -110. The Blue Jays have seen the early money and have moved to the -120 range.
- The Tigers took three of four against the Blue Jays in a series at Comerica Park back at the end of May.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 and that's where it sits as of Thursday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays and the Tigers went 2-2 O/U in that previous series. The game Jack Flaherty started went Over but was 1-1 after six innings.
Tigers vs Blue Jays trend
The Under is 10-7-1 in Chris Bassitt's last 18 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Blue Jays
Tigers vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 7-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (6-5, 3.13 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (8-7, 3.52 ERA) |
Tigers vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Tigers vs Blue Jays weather
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