Game 2 of the ALDS between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians goes down this afternoon, and we’ve got a trio of MLB player props for the action.
A pair of lefties are toeing the rubber, and we have it covered with our top Tigers vs. Guardians predictions on Monday, Oct. 7.
Tigers vs Guardians ALDS Game 2 props
- Matthew Boyd Over 11.5 outs (-139 at Caesars)
- Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts (-138 at Pinnacle)
- Tarik Skubal Under 17.5 outs recorded (+141 at Pinnacle)
Picks made on 10-7 at 8:55 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Tigers vs Guardians props
Prop bet #1: Matthew Boyd Over 11.5 outs
The sample is small, but the results have been tidy for Cleveland Guardians lefty Matthew Boyd. His 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are sterling marks, and while his 3.89 xFIP is much higher, it’s still in the respectable range. Additionally, Boyd’s .277 BABIP and 74.9 strand rate aren’t screaming for statistical correction in either direction.
Boyd has had three consecutive short outings with just 11 innings across his past three starts. He averaged 82.3 pitches over the three-game stretch, though, and he recorded 16 or more outs in each of his first five appearances with the Guardians while averaging 84.4 pitches.
Of course, it’s also important to note the Detroit Tigers were miserable against left-handed hurlers this season with the 27th-ranked .289 wOBA.
Prop bet #2: Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts
Turning to Boyd’s strikeout numbers, he finished off the regular season with a rock-solid 10.44 K/9 and 27.7 K% across his 39 2/3 big-league innings. His 13.9% swinging-strike rate and 29.9% called-plus-swinging-strike rate are also excellent metrics.
Boyd’s also earned plus grades on his three most frequent offerings, per FanGraphs. Additionally, a primary reason the Tigers struggled against lefties during the regular season was that they were strikeout-happy. Detroit’s 24.6 K% against southpaws was the seventh-highest mark in the majors.
Prop bet #3: Tarik Skubal Under 17.5 outs recorded
Detroit lefty Tarik Skubal has pitched six or more innings in three of his past five trips to the hill dating back to the regular season while allowing just four earned runs across 29 2/3 innings. He fanned 33 batters during the run, which all but officially solidified him as the eventual American League Cy Young Award winner.
I’m just happy to take the plus-money odds that Cleveland makes Tuesday’s start just difficult enough for him to fall short of completing six full frames this afternoon. The Guardians were eighth in wOBA (.324) against lefties during the regular season, and they also had the eighth-lowest strikeout percentage (20.7%).
Skubal could have a quicker leash than normal with Detroit already down 0-1 in the series, and the star lefty also threw a career-high 196 innings during the regular season and another six last Tuesday in the Wild Card Round. I also expect Cleveland to be looking to extend at-bats and keep Skubal’s pitch count climbing all afternoon.
With pitchers typically going shorter in the postseason, taking a flier on Skubal at plus money with our MLB picks is a pure value play.
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