Get ready for Game 5 of the best-of-five ALDS series between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians.
Our all-lefty starting pitching matchup could be a beauty, and my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for the prop markets expect both lefties to rack up plenty of strikeouts on Saturday, October 12.
Tigers vs Guardians ALDS Game 5 props
- Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105 at BetMGM)
- Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 strikeouts (-148 at FanDuel)
- Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)
Picks made on 10-12 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Tigers vs Guardians props
Prop bet #1: Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 strikeouts
Cleveland Guardians lefty Matthew Boyd stymied the Detroit Tigers to open this series and gets the nod in Game 5.
Boyd’s Game 1 numbers were solid. The former Tigers hurler scattered four hits with five punchouts across 4 2/3 frames against his former mates. It aligns with how he’s pitched down the stretch and how I expect him to pitch on Saturday.
Boyd has surrendered fewer than two earned runs in seven of his previous eight starts. He seldom pitches into the fifth inning, but he makes the most of his time with a shade over 10 strikeouts per nine.
Guardians manager Stephen Vogt has had Boyd on a short leash since his August 13 arrival. He won’t pitch into the fifth, but he did strike out five Tigers in Game 1. These Tigers will be aggressive, and they boast an uber-high 25% strikeout rate against lefties.
That’s why I’m playing Over on Boyd’s 3.5 strikeout prop. Boyd is whiffing 10.35 per nine at Progressive Field and getting slightly better than plus money for something Boyd has easily done in eight of his last nine starts is too good to pass up.
Prop bet #2: Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 strikeouts
AL Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal has been sensational down the stretch. The 27-year-old southpaw dominated the Guardians in Game 1, twirling a three-hit shutout across seven frames with eight punchouts and zero walks.
That’s been the pattern for Skubal for much of this season, and he’s pitched 13 scoreless frames during the postseason. Across his previous six starts, Skubs has surrendered only four earned runs with 41 strikeouts across 36 2/3 stanzas.
Skubal has a long leash and has pitched six frames or more in four of his last five. He’s struck out 6+ in each of his last eight. He’s also struck out this collection of Guardians 22 times across 82 at-bats.
That’s why I’ll lay the juice and play the Over on his strikeout prop. I think the only way Skubal doesn’t whiff six is if the Guardians clobber him, and Cleveland slashing .220/.247/.317/.564 over 82 career at-bats against the Tigers ace doesn’t lend much confidence in that happening Saturday.
Prop bet #3: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases
Guardians All-Star 3B Jose Ramirez hasn’t had the best ALDS series, but he has fared better over his career against Skubal than the rest of the Cleveland’s lineup has.
Ramirez cracked the eighth-most doubles (39) and ranked eighth in baseball with 39 bombs during the regular season. He’s cleared 1.5 total bases in six of his last 10, including Game 4 with a solo shot in Detroit.
The Guardians slugger has fared well against Skubal; he’s had nine hits with four extra-base hits across 24 career at-bats against the Tigers lefty. He’s also slashing .300/.380/.543/.923 with two jacks and nine extra-base hits against the current Detroit pitching staff.
Ramirez is one of the best hitters in the game and he’s blasted 20 of his 39 bombs and 24 of his 41 extra-base hits this season at Progressive Field.
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