Toronto Blue Jays 2022 MLB Betting Preview: Expectations, Value Sky-High in the Six

Expectations for the Toronto Blue Jays are as high as the CN Tower, and thankfully the Jays will be able to play a full season underneath it for the first time since 2019. 

The Blue Jays are coming off a 91-win season but ended up missing the postseason by just one game. But as MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. said, “Last year was the trailer. Now you guys are going to see the movie.” 

Even though the Blue Jays had to replace some key pieces from last season, they appear ready to make good on Vladdy’s statement and the baseball betting odds say they believe him.

Here is our MLB betting preview for the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays season:

Toronto Blue Jays futures odds

Odds to win the World Series

If you didn’t think the expectations for the Blue Jays were that high, then look no further than their odds to win the World Series. At +900, that doesn’t just put them among the betting favorites to win the Fall Classic, but the only team with better odds than the Blue Jays to win the World Series in 2022 is the stacked Los Angeles Dodgers.

But that doesn’t guarantee the Jays anything. Their American League East rivals, the New York Yankees, are neck-and-neck with Toronto at +900, followed by the Houston Astros at +1,000. The Chicago White Sox round out the AL contenders at +1,200. While in National League after the Dodgers, it’s the Mets and Braves each at +1,000 who pose the biggest threat to the Jays’ title dreams. 

Unfortunately, most of the value to bet the Jays to win the World Series evaporated after the Matt Chapman trade. And with the competitive nature of the AL East, there may be better future bets out there. Still, the road to the Fall Classic may likely run through the capital of Ontario.

Odds to win the American League/AL East

So, with those odds to win the World Series, it should be no shock that the Blue Jays are the co-favorites to win the American League Pennant at +450 along with the Astros. Toronto hasn’t won the Pennant since winning back-to-back in 1992 and 1993, which, of course, coincided with the team’s only two World Series titles.

Despite losing Carlos Correa, the Astros are still a big threat in the AL and have advanced to the American League Championship in each of the last five seasons. The Yankees and White Sox are not too far behind at +475 and +500 respectively.

But you can tell nothing will be easy for the Jays as fellow AL East teams the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox have the next best odds to win the Pennant at +750 and +1,000, respectively. The Jays are also the +170 favorite to win the AL East... but more on that later.

Season win Over/Under 92.5 and best regular-season record

Oddsmakers certainly are giving the Blue Jays a lot of respect. Not only are they among the favorites to win, well, basically everything but their regular-season win O/U of 92.5 is the second-highest in MLB and tops in the AL.

And for good reason.

The Blue Jays were a decent team in the first half of last season, going 45-42 (.512 winning percentage) prior to the All-Star break. But after the front office improved the bullpen at the trade deadline and George Springer returned to the lineup, they caught fire in the second half and ended up going 46-29 down the stretch. That’s a .613 winning percentage and works out to a 99-win pace over a full season.

And you can make the case that the team is an overall better group heading into 2022, capable of keeping that second-half pace for much of the season. But getting Over 92.5 win totals odds will be tough in a division that had four teams notch 91 wins or more a season ago.

Best futures bet: To win the AL East (+170)

All those things considered, the best futures bet has to be for the Blue Jays to capture their first AL East crown since 2015.

This is likely the toughest division in baseball and the Top 4 teams are all capable of putting up 90 wins again. On top of that, with a number so high, it doesn’t take much of a slump to make the Under a possibility. 

That said, the Jays have the most complete roster in the division. The lineup can compete with anyone. The rotation is the deepest. And the bullpen is much improved. Meanwhile, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all have more substantial questions surrounding their rosters.

The Rays are the two-time division champs and they always find a way to adapt, so it’s hard to doubt them, but this is the most inexperienced pitching staff they've had in years. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox have great offenses but have question marks in their rotations and defenses. 

If you think the Jays are good enough to go Over their win total of 92.5, it’s sensible to think they’ll probably win the division as well. So, why pay the juice of at least -115 on the Over 92.5 when you can take them to just win the division at +170.

Toronto Blue Jays betting preview

Offseason moves

It was an interesting offseason for Toronto. The Jays won 91 games last season but lost two key pieces from that team. Second baseman Marcus Semien, who hit 45 home runs and finished third in AL MVP voting, signed a big deal with the Texas Rangers and AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray joined the Seattle Mariners. Normally, those would be devastating blows for an up-and-coming team. But not for this Jays squad.

The nucleus is so strong and deep that it just took a few moves to make oddsmakers confident this team should be among the World Series favorites. First, to replace Ray, they signed right-hander Kevin Gausman, someone they had targeted before he landed with the San Francisco Giants. Gausman is coming off a career year, posting a 2.81 ERA but he did tail off in the second half.

To offset the loss of Semien, the Jays pulled off a trade with the Oakland Athletics to bring in Matt Chapman to play third base. Chapman is one of the best overall defenders in baseball and fills a need for the Jays. But it’s the chance for Chapman to return to his 2019 form where he finished sixth in MVP voting that should get Jays fans excited. He’s fully healthy and has a ton of support in this Jays lineup.

Toronto also shored up its rotation by signing former Mariners lefty Yusei Kikuchi. The southpaw was an All-Star in 2021 before a rough second half. But having him as your fifth starter is a luxury.

Strength

This is hard only because this roster doesn’t have too many holes, but its biggest strength is the offense. Led by MVP runner-up Vladimir Guerrero Jr., this has the chance to be the best offense in the American League. One through nine, this lineup can hurt you.

This was the third-highest scoring in the majors and led the Bigs in home runs and OPS. Guerrero is arguably the best hitter in the majors. Additionally, Bo Bichette led the AL in hits and Teoscar Hernandez had an OPS just three points shy of Semien’s.

And while detractors might say replacing Semien’s bat is going to be difficult, they’re overlooking the fact that the Jays only had George Springer available in 78 games last season... and he wasn't 100% when he did play. Plus, Chapman will be in a terrific situation to bounce back in a loaded lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark. 

We can give a quick shoutout to the starting rotation as well. While there is no surefire ace in the staff, not many teams can match running out the likes of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, and Yusei Kikuchi.

Weakness

If Toronto has a weakness, it’s the bullpen. The Blue Jays went just 15-15 in one-run games last year and 3-8 in extra-inning affairs. And there was a stretch of games in May and June where it felt like the team just couldn’t hold a late lead. Blowing games early in the season doesn’t seem like a huge deal at the time, but when you miss the postseason by a single game, those are the things you think about.

To be fair, the Jays' front office knew this was a problem and addressed it at last season’s trade deadline, bringing in relievers like Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards to support a solid closer in Jordan Romano. But the Toronto relief pitchers still finished the season ranked 16th in ERA and 12th in xFIP.

So, this offseason, they tried to bolster the bullpen further by signing Yimi Garcia and bringing back David Phelps. But the big question will be if the Blue Jays convert Nate Pearson, a former top starting pitcher prospect, into a high-leverage reliever. Pearson has electric stuff and it could play well out of the pen, and the Jays’ one glaring weakness could become a strength in 2022.

Toronto Blue Jays player futures odds

AL MVP odds

AL Cy Young odds

MLB Home Run leader odds

MLB hits leader odds

MLB wins leader odds

MLB Saves leader odds

Best player prop bet: Jordan Romano MLB saves leader (+2,000)

Betting Vladdy to lead the league in home runs or Bo to lead the league in hits again aren’t bad bets but there may not be any better value than backing Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano to lead the MLB in saves at +2,000.

Romano is coming off an excellent year where he pitched to a 2.14 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP while striking out 12.1 batters per nine innings. But injuries and limited opportunities early meant he notched just 23 saves. 

Still, he made the most of those opportunities with just one blown save on the season. If the Jays win more regularly in 2022 Romano, will have the chance to rack up way more saves just like he did down the stretch last season when he shut the door nine times in September.

Bet on Romano to have a big year out of the Jays' bullpen. 

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