The Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves wrap up a three-game set at Truist Park with a matinee showdown on Wednesday. The Twins are sending veteran Kenta Maeda to the mound for just his second start since coming off the IL last week, while Kolby Allard will be making his season debut for Atlanta.
MLB betting lines opened with the Braves as -155 favorites for this showdown with the Over/Under at 10. It's that lofty total I'm looking to target with my best free Twins vs. Braves MLB picks and predictions for June 28.
Twins vs Braves odds
Twins vs Braves predictions
The Twins scored a total of just three runs in the first two games of this series, but they should be able to get on the board more often against Atlanta and Kolby Allard today. The 25-year-old is making his season debut after suffering an oblique injury during the preseason and worked just 6 2/3 rehab innings in the minors, where he allowed two runs at Triple-A Gwinnett.
Allard had a 5.41 ERA in 124 2/3 innings with the Rangers in 2021, and posted a 7.29 ERA in 21 innings with them last season. He spent most of his time at Triple-A Round Rock last year, where he posted a 4.65 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP in 89 innings.
The Twins typically have a tough time batting against lefties, but Allard is barely a serviceable starter and likely won't pitch deep into this one. Minnesota strikes out at the highest rate in the majors and ranks just 21st in wOBA (.311). However, the Twins' analytics are much better, as they are third in the majors in barrel rate and 13th in hard hit rate.
As for Atlanta's lineup, it's been far and away the best in the majors. The Braves lead the game in wOBA (.354), barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate. They are also plating 6.78 runs per game this month and face off against Twins righthander Kenta Maeda today.
Maeda is one year removed from Tommy John surgery and he recently came off the IL after being sidelined for almost eight weeks with arm soreness. While he pitched extremely well when he returned to the rotation last Friday, that was against the woeful Tigers offense and he'll have a much tougher task today. In five starts this season, he has pitched to a 6.86 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and a .299 OBA.
I'm expecting plenty of runs in this afternoon's showdown, but it's worth mentioning that both bullpens have been solid. The Twins relievers are fifth in the majors in ERA 3.56 and eighth in WHIP (1.24), while the Braves are seventh in ERA (3.65) and fifth in WHIP (1.22). Get around the reliable play of those bullpens by taking the Over on the first five innings instead.
My best bet: First Five innings Over 5.5 (-120 at bet365)
Twins vs Braves same-game parlay
First Five innings Over 5.5
Donovan Solano Over 0.5 hits
Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 total bases
Donovan Solano has been Minnesota's most reliable contact hitter and leads the team with a .275 batting average. He also does a good job of hitting against lefties and boasts an impressive .297 BA since the start of the 2020 season.
If we're backing the Braves offense, it also makes sense to back superstar slugger Ronald Acuna. The NL MVP betting favorite is second in the majors with 188 total bases and has a career-high .330 batting average with an expected slugging percentage of .663. He's been even more productive lately slashing .347/.406/.674 over the last 22 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Twins vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The line opened with Atlanta installed as a -155 favorite and has since grown to between -160 and -170. The Braves have taken the first two games in this series and beat the Twins 6-2 last night as -141 favorites. They have been red-hot lately going an incredible 19-3 in their last 22 games.
The Braves boast the best record in the NL at 52-27 and are the World Series odds favorites. Meanwhile, the Twins are atop the AL Central but their record sits at a middling 40-41.
The total opened at 10, ticked down to 9.5, and is now back up to 10 at most books.
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Trend to know
The Over is 5-2 in Atlanta's last seven games with the total set at 9.0 to 10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Braves.
Twins vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 12:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Kenta Maeda (1-4, 6.86 ERA): Maeda missed almost two months with arm soreness but looked very sharp when he returned to action last week, scattering three hits and fanning eight batters in five innings of shutout ball versus Detroit. Maeda's season-long numbers look terrible, although they are a bit inflated by a single start against the Yankees when he surrendered 10 runs in three innings. Maeda was the AL Cy Young runner-up in 2020, but his ERA soared to 4.66 in 2021 before Tommy John surgery wiped out his season last year.
Kolby Allard (season debut): The 25-year-old Allard is making his season debut after allowing a pair of runs and striking out eight batters in 6 2/3 innings at Triple-A Gwinnett. He had a 7.29 ERA in 21 innings in the majors last year while pitching to a 4.65 ERA in 89 innings in the minors.
