The Minnesota Twins come into tonight’s contest fresh off a sweep of the Oakland Athletics and will try to carry momentum into T-Mobile Park when they start a four-game series against the Seattle Mariners.
Meanwhile, the Mariners have scored just six runs through their last three games and will look to break out of their slump as they continue a lengthy homestand.
Will Sonny Gray and the Twins keep the Mariners' bats quiet? Find out in our Twins vs. Mariners MLB picks and predictions for Monday, July 17.
Twins vs Mariners odds
Twins vs Mariners predictions
The Mariners limp into this series after dropping two of three games to the Detroit Tigers in their first set following the All-Star break. Seattle was shut out in a 6-0 loss on Saturday but bounced back with a 2-0 win on Sunday to claim its sole win over Detroit.
Seattle actually finished the first half on a strong note, winning seven of its last nine games while averaging 5.22 runs per contest over that span. The offense dried up against Detroit, though, as the Mariners managed just two runs and nine hits over the last two meetings.
Things won’t get easier for the Mariners tonight as they face Twins starter Sonny Gray. The right-hander isn’t flattered by his record but is arguably putting up a dark horse case as a Cy Young contender.
Gray was roughed up for six runs in his last start but prior to that, held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in all 17 of his starts. The Twins ace has also held opposing bats to two runs or fewer in five of his last 11 outings.
With the Mariners coming off a poor offensive effort against a weaker Tigers pitching staff, I’m banking on a strong start from Gray tonight.
My best bet: Sonny Gray Under 2.5 earned runs (-160)
Twins vs Mariners same-game parlay
Mariners team total Under 4.5 (-175)
Sonny Gray 5+ strikeouts (-330)
Carlos Correa to get a hit (-240)
Keeping with the theme of betting against the Mariners offense, I’m starting tonight’s same-game parlay by taking the Under on 4.5 runs for Seattle. I’ll also look for Gray to record at least five strikeouts as the right-hander has punched out five or more in four straight starts and five of his last six outings. Seattle also strikes out at the second-highest clip (25.9%) in MLB.
Finally, we’ll look for Twins slugger Carlos Correa to get another hit. He went hitless on Sunday but notched five hits in the first two games back from the All-Star break.
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Twins vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Mariners opened as the home favorite at -120 on the moneyline and saw their edge grow as high as -140 by Monday morning. While Logan Gilbert has been putting up some quality starts for Seattle, Minnesota’s offense has been hot since coming back from the break and that could give the visitors the edge tonight.
The Twins scored 20 runs against the A’s over their last three games, including a 10-run outburst on Saturday. Correa (five hits) and Kyle Farmer (four hits) were two of five players with at least three hits for Minnesota in that series, while six batters notched at least two RBI. The Mariners, as we know, scraped just six total runs in their three-game set against the Tigers, while their .231 average on the season ranks third-last in the majors.
Tonight’s total opened at 7 but can be found at 7.5 at some books. MLB odds are likely expecting a bit of a pitching duel between Gray and Gilbert — which is certainly a possibility — but I like the Over, especially at a flat 7.
While Seattle has struggled offensively, the club still owns some power in bats like Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, who have both reached the 50-RBI plateau. Meanwhile, the Twins have scored at least five runs in each of their last three games and have four players batting .300 or better in July.
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Trend to know
Minnesota is 4-1 in its last five meetings with Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Mariners
Twins vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Monday, July 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Starting pitchers
Sonny Gray (4-3, 2.89 ERA): After an incredible run where Gray did not allow more than three earned runs through his first 17 starts of the year, he was finally rocked for six hits and six earned over six innings against the Orioles on July 8. The Twins starter threw six shutout innings in his second-last start against the Orioles on July 2.
Logan Gilbert (7-5, 3.66 ERA): Gilbert is coming off two of his best outings of the year after a complete game shutout against the Giants on July 4 and a seven-inning start where he allowed just one earned run vs. the Astros on July 9. The right-hander has held opponents to two earned runs or less in four of his last five outings.
