The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners gear up for Game 2 in Seattle.
Game 1 was back-and-forth with the Mariners narrowly holding on for a 7-6 win after the Twins crossed the plate three times in the top of the ninth in a comeback bid.
Tuesday’s matchup features an interesting pitching duel between Bailey Ober and Bryan Woo, and looking at the MLB odds, the Mariners are slightly favored to come out victorious again.
Are those odds justified? Read on to find out in my best bet section below and see my full MLB betting picks for the Twins vs. Mariners on Tuesday, July 18.
Twins vs Mariners odds
Twins vs Mariners predictions
I like the Seattle Mariners' chances in Game 2 with impressive rookie Bryan Woo on the mound.
The youngster ranks in the 85th percentile or above in a number of key categories, including but not limited to xERA/xwOBA (95th percentile), K% (88th), extension (87th), xBA (86th), xSLG (85th), and chase rate (85th). His strong 2.78 xERA does not appear to be a fluke.
He faces a Minnesota Twins lineup that has a clear deficiency at the plate. The Twins strike out far too much — it’s been the case all season, and it remains an issue. The rookie right-hander should be able to capitalize on this weakness considering he has forced a 12.5% swinging strike rate while striking out 11.16 batters per nine innings.
The Twins thrive at the plate by working counts, posting a strong 10% BB-rate against right-handers in the month of July. Woo should be able to counteract this as he has just a 6.5% BB-rate.
The 23-year-old has shown impressive command — his 105 Location+, per FanGraphs, would be tied for ninth in MLB with notable names Sandy Alcantara, Spencer Strider, and Kevin Gausman if he had enough innings to qualify.
Minnesota will send Bailey Ober to the mound. While the 6-foot-9 behemoth has a strong ERA this year, he’s allowing too many barrels (9% barrel rate) yet again and his 3.61 xERA and 4.33 xFIP are both screaming for regression. He’s still a solid pitcher, but he allows too much hard contact and the numbers say he will regress eventually.
Some of the bats in Seattle’s lineups are finally coming alive. Once-hyped prospect Jarred Kelenic has reached base 10 times in his last seven games while driving in seven runs, and he’s still just 24 years old. J.P. Crawford has raised his batting average from .238 to .255 and his OPS from .715 to .761 during a scorching July.
Julio Rodriguez, the team’s star, is underperforming but has shown some encouraging improvements in his K-rate and BB-rate, and his .335 xwOBA calls for improvement on his .313 wOBA.
Seattle has been hot, winning nine of its last 13 games. With a terrific right-hander to the mound on Tuesday to face a Minnesota lineup with clear holes, I like the Mariners’ odds of grabbing a victory.
My best bet: Mariners moneyline (-120 at WynnBET)
Twins vs Mariners same-game parlay
Mariners ML (-125)
Bryan Woo to record 6+ strikeouts (-285)
J.P. Crawford to record a hit (-170)
Jarred Kelenic to record 2+ total bases (+160)
Our SGP will feature three legs added onto our best bet on Seattle’s moneyline. I listed Woo’s virtues above and think he has a great chance of racking up punchouts against a Minnesota lineup that has posted a gargantuan 27.9% K-rate against right-handed pitching in the month of July.
I’ll add Woo to record 6+ strikeouts as the second leg. He posted a 34.3% K-rate at AA and that number has only dipped to 30.5% in the Big Leagues while striking out 11.16 batters per nine innings.
For the third and fourth legs, we’ll take the Mariners’ J.P. Crawford to record a hit at -170 and Jarred Kelenic to record 2+ total bases at +160. Crawford has been on a tear at the dish, collecting at least one hit in 12 of his last 14 games.
Kelenic has notched 2+ total bases in five of his last seven games and hits righties well. This correlates with our Seattle moneyline play and brings our total SGP odds to +850.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Twins vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Seattle currently resides between -120 and -130 depending on which book you use, while the best comeback price for Minnesota is +110. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to see the best price on either side before placing your wager.
The total is set at 7.5 at the time of this writing. I considered an Under play considering both starting pitchers have looked great this year and both lineups have a penchant for striking out.
There could be a lot of swings and misses from both lineups as they both rank inside the Top 5 in K-rate against right-handed pitching in the month of July — Minnesota is second at 27.9% while Seattle is fifth at 27%.
That being said, both lineups have been performing well against right-handed pitching lately and that keeps me away from playing the total at a low number.
The Twins have been hot at the dish lately, going 7-2-1 O/U across their last 10 games. They’ve seen right-handed pitching well in July, posting a 123 wRC+ and .346 wOBA. Seattle has also hit righties well lately, posting a 116 wRC+ and .332 wOBA in that time span.
Both bullpens have been very reliable the season, tying for fifth in MLB with a 3.69 ERA,
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Bet $5 and get $100 in bonus bets at FanDuel! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Mariners are 9-4 in their last 13 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Mariners
Twins vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Bailey Ober (5-4, 2.61 ERA): Ober has been a pleasant surprise for Minnesota as evidenced by a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP that few predicted heading into the year. He’s allowed just one earned run across his last two starts while notching 13 strikeouts and just six hits allowed. His xERA (3.61) is above his actual ERA (2.61) for the third straight season, and it’s a full run higher for the second straight year.
Bryan Woo (1-1, 3.63 ERA): Woo is off to a fine start in his rookie season and his 2.78 xERA and 3.08 FIP are strong indicators that more success is to come. He’s striking out a ton of batters (30.5% K-rate) while limiting walks (6.4% BB-rate). The right-hander has been aces since getting roughed up for six earned runs in his debut, allowing just eight combined earned runs over his last six starts.
