The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners will wrap up a four-game set this afternoon at T-Mobile Park as the Twins have taken two of three and the Over is a perfect 3-0. Today’s pitching matchup is Pablo Lopez vs. George Kirby and MLB odds give us another low total of 7.5 (7 in some places) with the home side sitting as -130 favorites.
It’s no secret that both clubs are high K-percentage teams, but that usually leads to value on the Under and that’s where I’m leaning this afternoon on a high-strikeout total.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Mariners for Thursday, July 20.
Twins vs Mariners odds
Twins vs Mariners predictions
Pablo Lopez currently sits third in the league in punchouts with 145 over 116-plus innings, but the value is almost on the Under with players like this — today is no different.
Lopez’s K prop total is a hefty 7.5 and paying plus money for the Under. The market is falling and THE BAT is projecting 6.76 strikeouts which is giving bettors a full K of value on the Under at +116.
Lopez will also have an extreme hitter’s umpire Alan Porter behind the dish. Porter’s K% and BB% numbers are the exact same as Angel Hernandez and that’s saying something.
The Minnesota Twins starter is also coming off a season-high 106 pitches vs. the A’s who tagged him for seven runs and struck out just seven times. That K total was also 7.5 in that meeting and there hasn’t been a big enough adjustment to the Under vs. a decent Seattle Mariners offense that does strike out a lot but can also score.
Lopez has also logged a lot of innings and is a pitcher who has had injuries in the past. His fastball spin rate is down over the last three games and the performance out of the break vs. the A’s is a little concerning. The Twins bullpen has plenty of available middle-relief arms.
A lot needs to go right for an 8-K outing and I’m happy trusting the projections and getting plus money on this Under. I’ll be looking for one strikeout per inning and am expecting more runs today in a series that has seen 35 runs score through three games.
FanDuel opened this market at 8.5 which got smashed immediately and won’t be available to bettors by game time — but always shop around for the best price before getting down.
My best bet: Pablo Lopez Under 7.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)
Twins vs Mariners same-game parlay
Lopez Under 7.5 strikeouts (+105)
Lopez Over 1.5 earned runs (-165)
Lopez Under 18.5 outs (-190)
This is a full Pablo fade SGP.
I've already made my case on the Under 7.5 punchouts in my best bets, but the other added plays are also showing a ton of value.
Lopez's Over 1.5 earned runs is a play I like on its own. THE BAT is projecting 2.77 so the win probability is high with this play and two runs is nothing for a pitcher who has allowed multiple runs in 13 of his last 17 innings.
Getting Lopez on the other side of the key number of 18 on his outs market is also a high-probability bet. He is coming off a season-high in pitches and has gone over this number just twice over his last 11 starts. The chances of the Minnesota starter hitting the other two plays if he goes Under 7.5 strikeouts is very high and those totals are great. It's not a massive SGP in terms of odds but it is a decent play to boost a bet on three very correlated plays. Adding the Over 6.5 bumps this up to +375 for those interested.
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Twins vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Twins have taken two of three vs. the Mariners and have handled this solid pitching staff well putting up 22 runs so far in the series. They’re doing this without Byron Buxton who has missed back-to-back games but is also riding an 0-for-21 stretch so his absence isn’t a dealbreaker for me to back a Minnesota offense that has scored 42 runs over its last six games.
George Kirby is a top-end pitcher but the Twins handled Luis Castillo well yesterday (three runs on six hits over six frames) and Kirby didn’t look sharp vs. a bad Detroit offense in his last start, giving up six runs over 15 outs following the break.
The Mariners also have a pair of Triple-A call-ups in the bullpen to eat the middle innings.
Minnesota opened at +115 but the public has backed them for a third straight game and has moved this line to +100 which takes the value away from the ML, but like yesterday, I’m very interested in this low-total Over.
Books are caught in a bad place with this total as there are plenty of 7s available but many books are posting 7.5 which is giving Over bettors a great spot to hit the 7.
The pitching matchup of Pablo Lopez vs. Kirby is pushing this but both pitchers looked shaky in their first starts following the ASB and both bullpens have been active in this long four-game series where the Over is a perfect 3-0.
The 7 total is a beautiful thing as a 3-3 game is at least a push and the Twins are riding a seven-game Over streak.
Yesterday, I hit the Over 7 at -125 and was more confident fading Kenta Maeda but I’m projecting a similar game. If Buxton returns, I’m not sure this total closes at 7. But even if he sits again, his replacement, Matt Wallner, is posting a .864 OPS on the year. This Minnesota lineup is very solid one through nine, as is Seattle’s.
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Trend to know
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Mariners
Twins vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, July 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, RSNW |
Starting pitchers
Pablo Lopez (5-5, 4.24 ERA): Lopez is making his 20th start of the season and enters tonight with a 145/33 K:BB ratio over 116-plus innings. He currently sits third in the league in strikeouts but is coming off a rough outing vs. Oakland who took him for seven runs over 17 outs. Lopez is a long-leashed, elite pitcher but the Twins are just 11-9 SU when he starts. THE BAT is projecting 96 pitches, 17.1 outs, 6.63 strikeouts, and 2.77 earned runs.
George Kirby (8-8, 3.43 ERA): Kirby is making his 19th start of the season and enters with an elite 93/11 K:BB ratio over 112-plus innings with 13 home runs. Kirby also got roughed up vs. a bad offense in his latest start but this is still a pitcher that has multiple walks in just one start this year and currently sits at the No.9 betting favorite in AL Cy Young odds. The Mariners are 9-9 SU when he starts and THE BAT projects 95 pitches, 17.8 outs, 5.84 strikeouts, and 2.76 earned runs.
