It's a tale of AL Central haves and have-nots Tuesday, as the first-place Chicago White Sox look to keep rolling as they host the disappointing Minnesota Twins.
The Pale Hose are 8-2 in their last ten games and are aiming to break a tie in this series, currently knotted at one apiece. Find out where your best MLB betting value lies as we break down our Twins vs. White Sox picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 20.
Twins vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, July 20, 2021
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports North, NBCSCH
Twins vs White Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 5:30 p.m. ET today, Chicago is down to a -143 favorite at TwinSpires, after opening -170. The White Sox are drawing 57 percent of moneyline bets, but the Twins are taking 73 percent of moneyline dollars. "We've seen respected money on the Twins at +140 and +130," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said, noting Minnesota is now +120. The total moved from 9 flat (-110) to 9.5 flat, with 60 percent of bets/68 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameTwins vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Bailey Ober (1-1, 5.45 ERA): A relative newcomer to the big leagues, Ober only has eight MLB starts under his belt. However, three of them have been against the ChiSox, with mixed results. On July 5, he threw five innings of two-hit shutout ball against them while fanning seven, but in his prior outing barely lasted three innings while Chicago took him yard as many times for five runs. He's only lasted an average of four innings per game on the season so far.
Dallas Keuchel (7-3, 4.25 ERA): Keuchel has been solid if unspectacular this season, pitching to a meh 4.25 ERA (his highest since 2016) but has kept opponents at bay at the plate, allowing a respectable 103 hits and 13 homers on the season. He's coming off seven innings of one-run ball in his last outing, albeit against the Orioles.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Twins: Byron Buxton CF (Out), Joe Harvey RP (Out), Randy Dobnak RP (Out), Derek Law RP (Out), Jake Cave RF (Out), Royce Lewis SS (Out)
White Sox: Luis Robert CF (Out), Jake Lamb 3B (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out), Yasmani Grandal C (Out), Evan Marshall RP (Out), Nick Madrigal 2B (Out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 9-1 in the White Sox last 10 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox.
Moneyline pick
The Twins have had a tough time with the division leaders this season. Minnesota is just 3-11 against the White Sox in 2021, being outscored by an insane 45 runs in that sample.
At first glance, this isn't a great matchup for the Twins, especially sending such an inexperienced pitcher to the mound. Ober may have handled the Sox in their last matchup, but his overall body of work is still an extremely small sample, and putting too much faith in the results of one game could prove unwise. One thing going for him is that the White Sox hit slightly worse vs. righties (.252 BA, .753 OPS) than lefties (.264 BA, .774 OPS).
For their part, the Twins hit noticeably better against left-handed pitchers, but while Keuchel is far from a strikeout machine, he's kept opponents in check hits-wise and can routinely pitch into the sixth and seventh inning, which is far more than Ober can claim.
Chicago's bullpen is also superior, pitching to a 3.93 ERA, while the Twins relievers sit at a 4.83 ERA, the sixth-worst mark in the majors. Given that the White Sox have the steadier hand on the mound, who will likely go farther and pass the ball off to a less-shaky pen, we like them to get the job done in this one.
It's tempting to fire on Chicago's runline, given how badly they've battered the Twins this season, but they'll miss Yasmani Grandal and Nick Madrigal at the plate, while not starting one of their studs. The huge line move towards Minny gives us safe value to back a moneyline win.
PREDICTION: White Sox (-135)
Over/Under pick
Both of these teams have deep lineups with plenty of potency at the plate. The White Sox are firmly inside the Top 10 in pretty much every major hitting metric, while the Twins fringe on the same status.
As mentioned, Chicago will be down several of their big bats, but given their depth, we don't see that as a major deterrent to the Over, especially facing a newbie pitcher and one of the league's worst bullpens.
The injury factor seems somewhat baked into a total that opened curiously low for two thorough rotations that collectively average over 9.5 runs/game and always seem to light each other up. In 14 head-to-head games this season, that number balloons to 10.78 average runs.
The Twins have coughed up 498 runs this season, third-worst in the majors, and neither pitcher really inspires the kind of confidence needed to buck the trends and back an Under here. Expect fireworks.
PREDICTION: Over 9.5 (-110)
Twins vs White Sox betting card
- White Sox ML (-135)
- Over 9.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/20/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET
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